NIFTY Technical Analysis August - September 2016

NIFTY Monthly Candlestick Chart on 24th August 2016

NIFTY Monthly Technical Analysis

I did this on 24th August 2016.  NIFTY was at 8635 on that day.  The chart is long-term view with each candlestick representing a month of NIFTY's trading activity.

A Fibonacci Retracement is drawn from the market top near 8900 in Jan-Mar 2015 to the previous swing low in Aug-Sep 2013 from where the rally begun that ended in Mar 2015.

We can observe that from the high, the market found support at 6825 near 61.8% retracement of the move.   From this support, the market is moving upwards again.

Using these pivots, I think that 8900 will continue to remain an important resistance level.  The market is near this level today, and so we can expect a big movement upwards or downwards soon.

Downwards, the major support is 6825.  Upwards, the market can move to 11000+ or to 10250 in a smaller move.  These are the pivots for resistance / targets if NIFTY manages to break through 8900 and sustain an upward momentum.

In either case, the market has neared a decision point after many months of green (positive) candlesticks.  We should wait to see what the market does and once it gives a clear indication from 8900, new positions can be entered in long or short.

The market position as of today:



(Charts from Zerodha Kite HTML5 trading platform)

NIFTY Had An Indecisive Week (14 Sep 2014)

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

The market fell a minor 0.33% this week, and sustained the support line.  However, it is too close to the support line for us to be relaxed.

The weekly candlestick is not a perfect Doji, but it does resemble a Doji.  This is a signal of confusion in an upward trending market.  Volume has risen during the week but range of market movement was relatively small.  The market seems to be gearing up for a bigger move.

Notably, over the past 17 weeks (4 months), the 14-week RSI is forming a bearish divergence to the NIFTY.  This needs to be watched closely, as either the RSI will rise and match NIFTY; or NIFTY will fall and match the RSI.  The divergence has sustained for quite a while now!

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NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

NIFTY Hits Resistance: Weekly Technical Chart 6Sep14

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY closed at its resistance on 5Sep14.

It's be a superman-week for NIFTY - up, up & away!

The index has hit resistance near 8086, the weekly closing on 5Sep14.

The 50-day SMA is happily facing north, volume has fallen but still above the average, RSI is above 70% as well.  All positive signals.

If the index jumps above resistance, we well see some new market high next week.  Otherwise there could be some correction to around 7850 levels before hitting support.

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Balkrishna Industries: Be Careful & Watch for Breakouts - 6Sep14 Weekly Chart Analysis

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Positions in Balkrishna Industries should be avoided right now, till the following happens:-

Short-term perspective: @ Rs. 800 with tight stop loss

Long-term perspective: @ Rs. 830 & above

Observations:-

Balkrishna Industries stunned the market with >300% growth in 12 months from June 13 to July 14.

After a record-high @ Rs. 833, the stock price fell and created anxious moments for traders who entered late.  The price has risen again this week, bringing cheer to many.

But is this a good time to enter Balkrishna Ind? Probably not.

Why:

1) The Head-&-Shoulders pattern seems to be forming.  Just one more dip and the pattern would get confirmed.  This is a potential price reversal pattern and so until we are sure that Head & Shoulders is not forming, new purchase should be avoided.  A clearer view of Head & Shoulders formation can be seen below.

2) The support line is near Rs 683.  It is a short term support (since July14).  The same price level is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement from the top.  683 is also the base of the Head & Shoulders pattern.  This line has sustained well.  If share price falls below Rs. 683, danger bells would be set ringing and a price reversal may occur.

3) There is a short term resistance line going diagonally, as seen in Chart 1.  The current price at Rs 772 where it is fighting with resistance.

4) The positives are:- 50-day moving average is at >30 degree incline,  RSI has sustained near 70% level.  A weekly Marabozu candle has formed.  Volume is near the average.  These are positive signs, which tell us that the stock still has strength.

5) Till it breaks above the "Head" at Rs 833, the stock should be watched keenly.


All posts related to Balkrishna Industries

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

LIC Housing Finance Looks Strong with Convergence of 6 Support Lines

LIC Housing Finance Daily Chart Technical Analysis

LIC Housing Finance looks strong to take a long-position (buy).

Why?

When you see the chart I have put up, it looks complicated and cluttered.  I avoid such clutter on the charts, but this time the clutter is there for a purpose.  Read further to know why.

LIC Housing Finance has fallen since making a Double Top in May-June 2014.  

Currently, it is showing strength as there is a rare confluence of 6 different support lines.  I have marked them S1-S4 for convenience, and changed the colour / format of 2 addl. support lines.  They are as follows:

1. S1 (1 Month Old Support)
2. S2 (3 Month Old Resistance Turned Support)
3. S3 (4 Months Old Support) 
4. S4 (3+ Years Old Support - Black Line) 
5. 50-Day SMA (Red Line) 
6. 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Dotted Line)

Moreover, the RSI is in the 90+ 'very strong' zone.

Candlestick of the day is Dragonfly Doji, also a reversal pattern indicator.

The next lines of Resistance this share should encounter as it rises ahead... are 336 and 350.  

Never trade without a Stop Loss, in this case the SL can be few ticks below S3 (prob @303).

Feel free to comment with your views/questions & I'll be happy to respond.

All posts related to LIC Housing Finance

LIC Housing Finance Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY: Nothing Significant Today

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

(Each candlestick represents one daily of stock market activity)

NIFTY closed +50 today and displayed an upward marabozu candle with decent volume, but it still is below the resistance line at 5950.

That is the level to watch out for.  

If it hits 5950, then that would be a good time to play short if the volume lowers and the bar turns red the next day.  But in case it goes above 5950, look for the intensity of the breakout before taking a long position in the market

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NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Outlook: Where is the tricky index headed?

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis:

As the chart predicted last month (see my previous on NIFTY), 5500 has been an important level throughout May and June.  The index remained around this level initially and then fell to the 5200 level.

Why is 5200 important?  

The market has reached this level for the 3rd time since July 2010 (almost an year ago).  Last time was in Feb 2011, when the market dipped below 5200 briefly but rallied back upwards. This time again, the market has reached 5200 and has now shown signs of support.

Two more patterns have emerged.

The first is another important support at 5350.  Remaining above this level is a good sign as you can see in the chart.  While 5200 has served as a bottom, 5350 has served as the stronger support level over the past year.

Another is the diagonal set of parallel lines of support and resistance for the short term period since May 2011.  The line of support passes through 5200 just where the market dipped to this level in the current week.  This makes 5200 a very important level in the current week and that the market has shown support and remained above 5200 is a good sign.

Moreover, the volume has consistently lowered throughout the year and the current weekly volumes are atleast 50% or less as compared to a year ago.  The volume has progressively fallen.  This is showing a lowered interest in the market at the current rates.  This could be a sign that the market is readying for a move soon.  

For the time being it does seem like the market will rebound towards the higher levels after sputtering to a bottom of 5200.  But in the longer term, it is still doubtful if the market will be able to sustain above this level considering the socio-economic and political situation in India.  Defer from making long term decisions right now and trade for the shorter term, and beware of any fall below 5200 as this is an important support level.

All posts related to NIFTY

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

Tata Steel: Struggling to return

TATA STEEL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Tata Steel Close & CMP: 613

• Tata Steel has a long term diagonal support line as visible on the chart.  This line crossed the diagonal resistance last week at the 638 price level.

• As is visible on the chart, the price fell below and remained below the diagonal line of support.  This is a negative signal.  As the diagonal line of support is moving upwards, it is obvious that the more time Tata Steel remains lower, this line of support will seem farther and farther.  

• Moreover, the diagonal line of resistance will now start pushing this stock's price lower.

• The only good luck charm is the support line at 578.  As long a this line withholds, one may feel safe.  However, if 578 is taken out, it's going to be dangerous for Tata Steel.

• A fall below 578 may be traded with a short position.

• For Elliott Wave Traders:  2 sets of A-B-C corrections seem to have occurred.  We are now looking at either the Wave 1 of the next bull trend, or Wave X for the next set of corrections.  If 578 is taken out, then we can conclude that we are in the next set of corrections and headed down for another Wave C.

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TATA STEEL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Kinetic Motor: Finds Support @ 22, Could Rise

KINETIC MOTOR Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

• Kinetic Motor seems to have found bottom at 22.  The 13 EMA has also flattened out and the momentum has sustained during this sideways movement.
• Could be an opportunity to purchase if the price rises above 23.50.

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KINETIC MOTOR Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

BF Utilities: Bouncing Upward From Support Line

BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

BF Utilities showed recovery after touching its support line at 686 and another diagonal support line.

Close & CMP: 714

Market Outlook:

• 686 is the long-term support for BF Utilities, and the price has managed to remain above 686.
• Good opportunity to buy with stoploss below 646.  And a possible sell around 850-900. (If NIFTY underperforms, then sell sooner!)
• If the price falls and remains below 686 for a few sessions, it'll be a good opportunity to short.
• BF Utilities अपनी सुप्पोर्ट लाइन को छूकर वापिस ऊपर की ओर चल दिया है.  ६८६ इस शेयर का पुराना सुप्पोर्ट है.  अगर निफ्टी सही रहा तो बी ऍफ़ यूटीलीटीज़ को खरीदा जा सकता है, और ८५०-९०० के आस पास बेचा जा सकता है. पर अगर निफ्टी नीचे की तरफ घूम गयी तो जल्दी बेच देना चहिये.  और अगर ६८६ के नीचे गिरता है तो शोर्ट फ्यूचर में इन्वेस्ट किया जा सकता है.

Technical Indicators:

• The price has moved within a channel of 686-957 since a long time and the price bounced upwards after hitting its support at 686.  The trading volume is good and the momentum is also showing upwards.

All posts related to BF Utilities

BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Airtel: Bobbing Up and Down Near Support

BHARTI AIRTEL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Airtel maintained its status above the 200 DMA today.

Close & CMP: 323

Market Outlook:

• The price seems to be moving upwards.  Let's see how far it goes.  If it goes up tomorrow as well and the other indicators are looking right, there might be an opportunity to take a long position.
• Airtel आज ऊपर गया है.  शुरुआत में भाव गिरा लेकिन उसे ३०४ पर लॉन्ग टर्म सुप्पोर्ट मिल गया, और फिर भाव वापिस अपने २०० DMA और ३१९ सुप्पोर्ट के ऊपर जा के बंध हुआ.

Technical Indicators:

• A piercing candlestick pattern has occurred.
• The 200 DMA and long term support levels at 319 and 304 are helping the stock price sustain.
• Today's rise is accompanied with high trading force.
• The momentum oscillators are showing an upward rise.
• There is hope that Airtel will make an upward correction.

All previous posts related to Bharti Airtel 


BHARTI AIRTEL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY: Today's Chart Analysis

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis:

NIFTY fell again today but found support before closing.  

Close & CMP: 5417

Market Outlook:

• The index had another long fall today, but is resting on support.
• If NIFTY falls again tomorrow, it should find further support until 5350.  Falling below this level could be dangerous.
• आज NIFTY फिर से गिरी. पर उसे सुप्पोर्ट मिल गया है और सुप्पोर्ट पर ही रुक गयी.  अगर यह कल और नीचे जाती है तो ५३५० तक सुप्पोर्ट मिलता रहेगा.

Technical Indicators:

• The price is resting on its support line.
• There was a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern today.
• The momentum is showing some upward movement though the force is tremendous.  So the market could go in either direction tomorrow, there is no specific trade signal yet.
• Closing exactly on the support line without breaking is a positive sign.
• A lot of contrasting signals amongst technical indicators; the market is going haywire, and there is high insecurity.  As this insecurity reduces, the market should stop falling like it is right now.

All posts related to NIFTY

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

Reliance Industries: Near Support, But Will It Fall Lower?

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Reliance Industries fell sharply this week.  It ate up all the growth it had taken in the past 5 months.

Current close & CMP: 1505

Market Outlook:

• Something big is about to happen in Reliance Industries, a good move in either direction.  Be prepared!
• Reliance Industries fell through out in the last week and is currently near support.
• The current support is at 995.
• If the stock falls below 995, then one can go short with expected target at 913.

Technical Indicators:

• Reliance Industries has been sideways since May 2009.
• Watch out for a breakout below 874.  If that breakout happens, go short expecting a very good amount of profit.

All posts related to Reliance Industries

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Kinetic Motors: Finally, Support @26.50

KINETIC MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Kinetic Motors remained unmoved on a day even when the stock market fell sharply.

Close & CMP: 27.65

Market Outlook:

• The price has the potential to rise again from the level of 26.50.
• Can be purchased as it rises above 28.50.

Technical Indicators:

• The price formed a Doji Candlestick at its support level of 26.50.
• This support seems strong and should be able to hold fort.
• The price didn't fall even though the market crashed, indicating further strength at this support level.
• The momentum is also low and should start rising very soon.
• In nutshell, seems like a good time to look at Kinetic Motors as a buy.

All posts related to Kinetic Motors

KINETIC MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

SBI on Support Line @2574

STATE BANK OF INDIA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


SBI began its fall in early November 2010, and has been continuously falling since (except for a small correction a few days back).

Close & CMP: 2600

Market Outlook:

• The price broke through 2 levels of support since the beginning of 2011.
• The price has found support at 2574.
• Next week, it seems like the price will go up again or remain sideways, after reaching this support level.
• But overall, I am not bullish on SBI anymore for the coming few weeks.

Technical Indicators:

• Today the price movement formed a spinning top candlestick and also made an intraday low on its support line.  Both of these indicate that this support is showing strength and could prevent further downfall of the SBI stock price.
• The price made 2 bearish breakouts in the last 4 days.  The price fell through its one-year old diagonal support line.
• The stock is deeply underbought, indicating that there could be a rise or atleast the further fall could be stopped for a few days.
• Only if the price goes above 2770, one can look at SBI positively again for purchase.

All posts related to SBI


STATE BANK OF INDIA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Asian Paints: @ 50% Retracement

Asian Paints has been rising since beginning of 2009 within a price channel

ASIAN PAINTS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Asian Paints is moving within a price channel since early 2009.  The stock price hit its resistance on 23 Dec'10 and is now falling.

Close & CMP: 2776

Sentiment: Bearish

Market Outlook:

• The sudden single day fall is due to the big fall in NIFTY on the same day, otherwise the fall would have been smaller.
• The price has found support at 2756.  But there is likelihood that the price will fall further to find support at 2698.  
• Closing below the diagonal support line could mean that the stock is losing its bull trend and might fall or turn sideways.

Technical Indicators:

• There are long term lines of support and resistance, forming a price channel for Asian Paints' bull run since early 2009.
• Currently, the price has retraced to its 50% Fibonacci levels and found support there.
• The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement crosses the support at 2698, making this number an important support point.
• The stock is priced quite high and is up by about 450% in 20 months.  Not a very good time to take a long-term position in Asian Paints, I doubt if it will continue rising at this pace in 2011, or will be able to rise much at all.

All posts related to Asian Paints

ASIAN PAINTS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Educomp Solutions: Seeking Support

EDUCOMP Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Educomp lost in a single day what it had gained in 10 preceding days.

Close & CMP:  511.50

Sentiment: Bearish

Market Outlook:

• The price has made a big single day fall and is currently resting on support.
• There is a possibility that the price may make an upward correction, but there is also a possibility that it may fall below the current support.
• The next level of support is available at 490.  
• If Educomp hits 490 and NIFTY improves, then we should have a buy opportunity on this one at that time, as the stock price could start climbing upwards again after hitting 490 if market is overall performing well.
• Falling below 490 could be dangerous for everyone in a long position on this stock.

Technical Indicators:

• The price had a big single day fall forming a marabozu candlestick, but the trading volume is not too high.
• The price managed to close at its available support level, which is a good sign.
• The momentum is falling and is mid-way, so not much of a signal available from there; but there are chances of further fall due to this falling momentum.

All posts related to Educomp

EDUCOMP Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Jaiprakash Associates: Rising, Finally

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Jaiprakash Associates (previously JayPee Cements) rose this week after 2 months of falling.  

Close & CMP:  105.85

(This is a weekly chart so each bar / candlestick denotes price movement of 1 week)

Sentiment: Bullish

Market Outlook:

• The price seems headed upwards.
• There is an opportunity to buy / go long with a target of 125, stop loss 96.50
• But if NIFTY underperforms, liquidate around 117.
• There is strong support between 97 and 101.

Technical Indicators:

• The price fall slowed down as soon as it hit its support at 101, as visible from the small candlestick bodies.
• The support at 101 seems strong and so the price has started moving up again.
• There is a resistance line around 125, sell when the price reaches near this point.
• The price is deeply undersold, which also indicates that the price is ready for upward movement.

All posts about JP Associates 

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

(analyzed for Kiran, Mangalagiri)

Tata Communications: Support Level Continues

TATA COMMUNICATIONS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The trading volume went back to its lower self today, while the price fell and closed at 247.

Market Outlook:

• The price is readying for a big move.  I talked about this looking like an accumulation phase on Friday, and today the same has continued.

Technical Indicators:

• There is a short term support line which is giving support to the stock price at the moment.
• Friday witnessed huge quantity in trading without a change in price.  That's suspicious behavior and the stock is surely readying for a big move.
• Most probably this is an accumulation phase, but it could even be getting ready for the next fall.  The answer should show itself soon.
• Tata Communications is in the midst of the 2G storm, btw, and the current price behavior is indicating that the management knows something which you and I are yet to find out, and should be finding out soon.  

TATA COMMUNICATIONS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Financial Techno: On Support Line, Might Rise

FINANCIAL TECHNO Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Financial Techno fell for the 9th straight day today.  Open: 870.1, Close & CMP: 824.15

Market Outlook:

• The price has found support at 778.  It could make an upward correction now.
• Good chance to make short term gains if this makes an upward correction. Shorting opportunity if it breaks the support trendline.

Technical Indicators.

• There is a support trendline formed and the price took support on it.  It rose after touching this support line at 776 and closed higher at 824.
• This stock might be actively traded on Monday and a upward correction is possible. 
• The upward may not last long though, this is purely a short term opportunity if it rises.  The sell target is not very visible yet but 1000 is the highest point we exit could be made.  I'll update the target if the stock price rises on Monday.
• If the price falls and closes below the support line, the price might just fall further and present a short sell opportunity (not sure if this one is traded in F&O, though)

FINANCIAL TECHNO Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis