NIFTY Technical Analysis August - September 2016

NIFTY Monthly Candlestick Chart on 24th August 2016

NIFTY Monthly Technical Analysis

I did this on 24th August 2016.  NIFTY was at 8635 on that day.  The chart is long-term view with each candlestick representing a month of NIFTY's trading activity.

A Fibonacci Retracement is drawn from the market top near 8900 in Jan-Mar 2015 to the previous swing low in Aug-Sep 2013 from where the rally begun that ended in Mar 2015.

We can observe that from the high, the market found support at 6825 near 61.8% retracement of the move.   From this support, the market is moving upwards again.

Using these pivots, I think that 8900 will continue to remain an important resistance level.  The market is near this level today, and so we can expect a big movement upwards or downwards soon.

Downwards, the major support is 6825.  Upwards, the market can move to 11000+ or to 10250 in a smaller move.  These are the pivots for resistance / targets if NIFTY manages to break through 8900 and sustain an upward momentum.

In either case, the market has neared a decision point after many months of green (positive) candlesticks.  We should wait to see what the market does and once it gives a clear indication from 8900, new positions can be entered in long or short.

The market position as of today:



(Charts from Zerodha Kite HTML5 trading platform)

GHCL could rise further in short term

GHCL Daily Chart Technical Analysis


GHCL has crossed above the expected AB=CD and we can now look at the possibility of achieving the AB=138.2%CD mark.  This is at 160.  Currently the price is at 139.  A possible buy above 142 with exit at 160.


GHCL Daily Chart Technical Analysis

How Charting Could've Saved You From DLF Crash (Oct2014)

DLF Daily Historical Candlestick Chart Technical Analysis

I'm writing a different kind of post today.  This is not a future-prediction; it's a historical analysis.

The share is DLF, which has crashed in recent times.  A lot of negative news is floating around for DLF, hammering the share price.

A lot of investors have gotten stuck in DLF, as the fall was huge and happened before people could exit.

The question is, Could knowledge of Charting have saved an investor from losing money?  Did the chart give exit signals before the crash?  Let's see.

DLF Price Movement May13 to Oct14

This is a Daily Candlestick Chart of DLF from May 2013 to October 2014.

The price topped on 9th June 2014 at Rs. 242.95.  Then price fell to 205, found support for a while, attempted to rise but lost near 223 and fell from there like a waterfall.

We'll assume we have no news about DLF and are simply looking at the chart and taking positions.  The following is spotted on 9th June:

1) There was a sudden bull run from 9th May 2014, with price rising almost vertically.  The volume also spurted.  This was an alert signal.  It could mean both bullish and bearish, but its an alert nevertheless.

2)  The Fibonacci sequence shows achieving an extension level which provides natural resistance to price.

3)  On 9th June, the price made a bearsih divergence with its oscillator (compared to previous high on 26th May 2014).  This, coupled with Fibonacci resistance, is reason enough to exit or take a short position.

4)  If an investor had not exited DLF on divergence, then in the next few days the RSI fell below 70 and failed to reclaim the bullish levels till end of July even though price had risen.  This is obviously another case of divergence, giving a reason to exit anytime between 205 and 223.

5)  Finally, as the price fell below Rs. 195, it formed a Head-and-Shoulders pattern (not drawn on the chart).  After all the negative signals, this one would be a very-definite exit signal.

6)  There are candlestick patterns as well, but I think you understand by now that they provide additional information indicating an oncoming bearish market.

The price is currently (29Oct2014) trading Rs. 100 - Rs. 120 levels.  Any investor could have saved the loss by exiting DLF at the right time, as the chart was showing exit warnings again and again.

How much money could we have saved (considering current price of Rs. 111)?

1)  If exited at Bearish Divergence, then Rs. 130 per share loss could be saved.
2) If exited at RSI falling below 70 inspite of price rise, then Rs. 100 per share loss could be saved.
3) If exited at Head & Shoulders formation, then Rs. 85 per share could be saved.

That's quite a lot of money!

Why people depending only on news, would lose money in such times?
News is tricky - It can be incorrect, it can be late, and it can be incomplete.  We never know what the real story is.  Frauds have become commonplace.  Also, its obvious that many people get important information before the retail investor - and they use it even though there are laws against such trading.  Many institutional investors have access to direct news feeds, and they officially get quicker news than retail investors do.

However, a change in price movement usually shows up on the chart in form of many different alert signals.  This can be useful to protect from losses, as we see on the DLF chart above.

Cirrently, DLF is at completion of an AB=CD projection.  This is providing support to price as Rs. 109, as is visible on the chart.

All posts related to DLF

DLF Daily Historical Candlestick Chart Technical Analysis

Biocon: Finally Inching Back to Where It Started 9 Years Ago (Sep2014)

Biocon Ltd. Monthly Chart (Each Candlestick represents one month)

Biocon Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Let's look at the long term trend of Biocon prior to charting its current situation.  

Above is the monthly chart since its IPO in 2004.  We can see that if someone invested in the IPO and held on to the share, unfortunately they have not made any profit in 9+ years.  

The current trend has been positive.  The moving 20 & 50 SMA (monthly) (not on this chart) are moving upwards. The 50 monthly SMA has recently crossed the 100 SMA upwards.  Overall the share price has moved upwards since the big fall during 2008 global markets meltdown.

Let's see the dominant trendlines on the monthly chart below.  The current months are where the long term trendlines converge, making it an important time to watch this share.

The stochastics indicator on the monthly chart is oversold (not visible on the chart) and %D has just fallen below the 80% level.  The RSI (not visible on the chart) has also formed a bearish divergence.  This is indicating a correction zone for Biocon, and so we will keenly watch the current rise, and not invest before we can see a clear indication for further rise.

A notable viewpoint is that inspite of uptrending Indian markets and the NIFTY reaching its all-time high, Biocon is still sluggish.  Biocon is zigzag in a fast-rising market, and it gives us a reason to be wary of the further movement of this share.

August made a Doji candlestick, a powerful signal on a monthly chart.  This indicates that the market is largely confused about Biocon's share price.  In September, Biocon has made a good comeback with good volumes.  Let's see if this can sustain.

Biocon has good product lines, including futuristic markets such as manufacturing injectable insulin for diabetics.  This is an ever-growing market and in the long run this share should do well if the company follows solid business practices.

Now let's see what a trader should be doing.

Currently, the entry point is around Rs. 540-550.  Tight Stoploss would be at 510, other Stoploss is at Rs. 460.  Short Target would be Rs. 590-600.  Mid-term target would be 650-680.

Unless price achieves the 540+ level, this share should be watched and not invested.  

On the lower side, Rs. 460 is a point of Resistance-turned-Support. 

The market resisted Rs. 460 for 6 consecutive months (from Dec 13 to May 14), making it s a strong holding point... and now that it has become support we can expect it will hold.

If 460 is broken, then next support is at 410 and then at 375 (Fibonacci Retracements).

Biocon Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Charted on request of Rakesh, New Delhi.

Balkrishna Industries: Be Careful & Watch for Breakouts - 6Sep14 Weekly Chart Analysis

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Positions in Balkrishna Industries should be avoided right now, till the following happens:-

Short-term perspective: @ Rs. 800 with tight stop loss

Long-term perspective: @ Rs. 830 & above

Observations:-

Balkrishna Industries stunned the market with >300% growth in 12 months from June 13 to July 14.

After a record-high @ Rs. 833, the stock price fell and created anxious moments for traders who entered late.  The price has risen again this week, bringing cheer to many.

But is this a good time to enter Balkrishna Ind? Probably not.

Why:

1) The Head-&-Shoulders pattern seems to be forming.  Just one more dip and the pattern would get confirmed.  This is a potential price reversal pattern and so until we are sure that Head & Shoulders is not forming, new purchase should be avoided.  A clearer view of Head & Shoulders formation can be seen below.

2) The support line is near Rs 683.  It is a short term support (since July14).  The same price level is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement from the top.  683 is also the base of the Head & Shoulders pattern.  This line has sustained well.  If share price falls below Rs. 683, danger bells would be set ringing and a price reversal may occur.

3) There is a short term resistance line going diagonally, as seen in Chart 1.  The current price at Rs 772 where it is fighting with resistance.

4) The positives are:- 50-day moving average is at >30 degree incline,  RSI has sustained near 70% level.  A weekly Marabozu candle has formed.  Volume is near the average.  These are positive signs, which tell us that the stock still has strength.

5) Till it breaks above the "Head" at Rs 833, the stock should be watched keenly.


All posts related to Balkrishna Industries

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Financial Techno: An Upward Movement Possible

FINANCIAL TECHNO Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

(This is a weekly chart, so each bar/candlestick represents 1 week of activity)

Financial Techno has been falling since April 2010.

Close & CMP: 704

Market Outlook:

• The price is expected to go sideways or make an upward correction now.  And this upward correction could be sustainable as well.
• The resistance is at 904 if this upward correction happens.
• If the price closes below 713 for a couple of more days, it could be an immediate bearish signal.
• यह शेयर अप्रैल २०१० से गिरता चला जा रहा है.  अभी इसे सुप्पोर्ट मिला है और यह साइडवेज जा सकता है या थोडा ऊपर की और भी जा सकता है.  अगर ऊपर गया तो ९०४ पर रेसिस्टेंस है.

Technical Indicators:

• This stock has retraced to 23.6% of its position, a very bearish place to be.
• The current price level seems sustainable.  
• The force is quite less compared to the massive volume.  The stock price could exhibit upward movement. 

All posts related to Financial Techno

FINANCIAL TECHNO Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

(analyzed for Prashant, Surat)

Asian Paints: @ 50% Retracement

Asian Paints has been rising since beginning of 2009 within a price channel

ASIAN PAINTS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Asian Paints is moving within a price channel since early 2009.  The stock price hit its resistance on 23 Dec'10 and is now falling.

Close & CMP: 2776

Sentiment: Bearish

Market Outlook:

• The sudden single day fall is due to the big fall in NIFTY on the same day, otherwise the fall would have been smaller.
• The price has found support at 2756.  But there is likelihood that the price will fall further to find support at 2698.  
• Closing below the diagonal support line could mean that the stock is losing its bull trend and might fall or turn sideways.

Technical Indicators:

• There are long term lines of support and resistance, forming a price channel for Asian Paints' bull run since early 2009.
• Currently, the price has retraced to its 50% Fibonacci levels and found support there.
• The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement crosses the support at 2698, making this number an important support point.
• The stock is priced quite high and is up by about 450% in 20 months.  Not a very good time to take a long-term position in Asian Paints, I doubt if it will continue rising at this pace in 2011, or will be able to rise much at all.

All posts related to Asian Paints

ASIAN PAINTS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Sterlite Techno: Bullish Breakout

STERLITE TECHNO Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Sterlite Techno closed at 74, about 2.77% above its resistance which is @72.

• This is a bullish signal and can be traded with first target @ 79-81 and SL at 70. 
• If price breaks above 82, it is a very good signal  But falling below 72 is negative.
• For recent detailed analysis of Sterlite Techno, click here

STERLITE TECHNO Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Sterlite Techno: Huffing and Puffing to rise past 72

STERLITE INDUSTRIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


Sterlite Industries has remained range bound for the last 2 weeks and move between 69-72.
Today's Close & CMP: 71.6

Market Outlook:

• The price is facing stiff resistance at 72 where it is currently consolidating.
• Closing above 72 with higher trading volumes might suggest a hopeful correction.

Technical Indicators:

• The price peaked in June, since then it has been falling continuously. 
• The fall is in a cascading motion, with natural consolidation near each Fibonacci Retracement.  Currently the price is consolidating just below its 61.8% retracement level.
• There are 2 lines of support and resistance, which have created a price channel and are driving the stock price downards
• There might be a chance to make some short term money if the price closes above 72, then it could go to 82 before falling back.
• As of now, no signs that this will recover and go higher up.  Wouldn't recommend getting into the stock at the moment.

STERLITE INDUSTRIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(analyzed for Prashant, Rajkot)

3i Infotech Hits The Double Top Barrier

3i INFOTECH Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


3i Infotech opened gap down and people showed little interest in trading it at the current price level.

Market Outlook:

• The price is trying to resist further fall.  But how much it succeeds, we can only find out next week.  For now, no trading signals on this one, wait for Monday trading scenario before getting into 3i.

Technical Indicators:

• The price has made a Double Top near 59.50, a level that co-incides with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.  This makes it a strong resistance point an indicator that the price may fall further.
• The stock is majorly over-sold at the current level and momentum is headed downward.
• The only saving grace is the Doji candlestick which has formed on Friday, this is showing that the market is resisting a further fall and might try to climb on Monday.  However, the chances of this happening do not look very hunky-dory.
• As for now don't get into 3i Infotech, wait for signals.

All Previous Blog Posts About 3i Infotech


3i INFOTECH Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Jubilant Foodworks: Headed Down?



JUBILANT FOODWORKS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The stock price again opened gap up today and higher than its open, but the close was below the mid-point of the intraday range.  Close & CMP:  590

Market Outlook:

• The stock price could fall, don't buy right now, wait.
• In fact, there might be a chance to take a short position with targets at 550 and 530, if the stock indeed falls tomorrow or on Friday.

Technical Indicators:

• The Deliberation candlestick formation has occured on the chart, a negative signal.
• The stock is majorly oversold, a negative signal.
• The price is facing resistance from the Fibonacci 23.6% Retracement level, a negative signal.

All previous charts and posts about Jubilant Foodworks

JUBILANT FOODWORKS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Indiabulls at rs 176 Support line, Might Rise

INDIABULLS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Indiabulls again fell today, Opened at 196.4 and fell throughout the day to close at CMP 180.5 (losing close to 8% on a single day).

Market Outlook:  

• The price fall will be challenged by the support at 176.  It will be important to watch if the price respects this level or breaks and falls below it.  Even today you can see that the price reached this important support level as its intraday low but then rose back again.

Technical Indicators:

• 176 is a double support - a double bottom and Fibonacci.  The moment stock price touched this level, the market resumed buying interest in Indiabulls.
• If the stock remains above 176 and rises again, one could buy with a target of 216-221.
• The stock is deeply oversold, indicating a possible upward correction very soon.
• If the price falls below 176, the next support will only come at 159.  

INDIABULLS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

TTK Healthcare @360: Could rise tomorrow

TTK HEALTHCARE Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The price dropped steeply today, Open: 390, Close & CMP: 360.45.

Market Outlook:

• The price could rise again tomorrow from its current support level at 360.
• If price rises with high number of trades taking place, it might be a good point to enter with targets at 386, 394 and 419. 

Technical Indicators:

• Price is taking support of Fibonacci 50% and Fibonacci Fan 61.8%.  This makes 360 a strong support level.
• Less number of people seem interested in the stock as such low price levels.
• Stock is deep into the oversold level.
• Possible rise tomorrow.  Keep watching the price and trade numbers as the market opens.
• If price falls, only next support is at 331.

TTK HEALTHCARE Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Karur Vysya Reaches Support Line @ 520: Possible Buy If Rises

KARUR VYSYA BANK Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Karur Vysya CMP 520.9 after opening at 529.5.

Market Outlook:

• The price has potential to move upwards in a day or two.  Keep watching Karur Vysya.
• If it moves up with good trading volume, the target is around 546-550 levels.

Technical Indicators:

• Fibonacci 23.6% support at Rs. 520.  
• Price has taken multiple support at 520 in the past and has formed a double bottom today in a span of one month.
• The stock price is already in the oversold levels and so could rise again soon.
• If price closes below 520, it will have a tough time rising up again and will stay down for some more time.

KARUR VYSYA BANK Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Kinetic Motors Weekly: 8-12 Nov '10: Resistance @ 43

KINETIC MOTORS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The week ended with a fall.

It opened on 8th at 40.05 and closed on Friday with CMP 38.2.  In the meanwhile it managed to make an intra week high of 43.25.

Market Outlook:

• As expected in last week's post, the price enjoyed the support of Rs. 37.5 and closed above it.
• This week the price could fall further.  If it does, it should close between 35 and 37.5.
• If the price rises, which seems unlikely, it will again face resistance at Rs. 44.

Technical Indicators:

• Fibonacci 61.8% support of retracements as well as arc at Rs. 37.50.
• Candlestick shows that the week began with buying but ended with selling.  The selling could continue next week, and price could fall further.   

KINETIC MOTORS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Pricol: Support @ 25, Resistance @ 31

PRICOL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Pricol fell today, opening at 28 and closing at CMP 26.4.

Market Outlook:

• The price should close between 25 and 26 on next trading day.
• Support at 25 and resistance at 31.

Technical Indicators:

• The day ended with a Marabozu Candlestick.
• There is Fibonacci 61.8% support at 25, and Fibonacci 78.6% resistance at 31.
• There are also trendlines of support and resistance as visible on the chart above.
• The price could hit 25 before returning upwards, could be a buy opportunity if it U-turns.

PRICOL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Karur Vysya: Strong Support @ 520, Will Rise Again

KARUR VYSYA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The price fell marginally today from its opening, after a good upward rally during the day.  CMP is 534.7.

Market Outlook:

The price will remain sideways tomorrow with possibility of lower intraday low than today.

The price will reverse its short term correction and rise upwards.

If price does not make an intraday low of 528 or below, its a good sign to buy around 232-235 levels with a target at 580 and another target near 639.

Technical Indicators:

The price made a Tombstone Doji candlestick today, good possibility of reversal.

Very strong double Fibonacci support for this stock at 520.

Support of the 50 day moving average.  The price has remained above 50 day moving average since Apr 2009, i.e. 1.5 years.  It has again touched its 50 day moving average and will rise.

Public sector banks are in full bloom on the stock market.  Enjoy the ride!! :)  [while it lasts, nothing is forever]



KARUR VYSYA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(Analyzed for Yasoram, Erode)

Jindal Polyfilm: Support @ 618, Buy Possibility in 1-2 days

JINDAL POLYFILM Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Jindal Polyfilm fell today, opened at 641 and CMP is 632.60.

Market Outlook: 

• The price will hit its support near Rs. 618 to Rs 622 and rise again.
• There is an opportunity to go long if the price rises back with good volume.
• The first target would be at Rs 660.  The second target would be at Rs. 695.  But sell only if the price hits 695 and falls back below 685.  If it goes above 695, stay invested.

Technical Indicators:

• The point of Fibonacci support is at Rs. 618.  If it breaks 618 the next level of support is at Rs. 543.  
• Resistance is at Rs 695.  The price has made a double top at this level recently.
• If the price breaks 695, its a good opportunity to go long.

JINDAL POLYFILM Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(Analyzed for Vikalp, Delhi)

Indian Hotels: Expected to Rise

INDIAN HOTELS Daily BSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Indian Hotels went up today.  The price opened at 103.4 and CMP is 106.7.

Market Outlook: 

• There is a long term line of resistance as visible on the chart.  Tomorrow the price will try to break it and climb upwards from Rs. 108.  We can see that the price hit the resistance today and retracted.
• I expect the price to keep moving upwards for this week and break its resistance.  
• For intraday, buy at 106 and sell at 110.  I don't do much intraday so this is only a recommendation, I wouldn't be doing it myself.

Technical Indicators:

• Fibonacci Support at 102.50 and 98.50.  Fibonacci resistance at 110.
• There is a double bottom support at 95.   
• Breaking 114 is crucial.  If the price can do this, its time to go long. 
• No chance of fall in the short term.

Fundamentals:

The P/E of this stock is quite high - 63.  Still many analysts are calling it undervalued.  So there seems to be a disparity of opinion so I'll strictly stick to the technical charts for trading Indian Hotels.

INDIAN HOTELS Daily BSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

(Analyzed for R Gupta, Delhi)

BF Utilities to show a definite trend by weekend

BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The price marginally went up today.  It opened at Rs 945 and CMP was Rs 954.35.

Market Outlook: 

• The price is expected to marginally rise again tomorrow and close above Rs 957.
• There is a point of decision by end of this week.  What happens the day after the support line and the arc cross each other will help us take future stand in the market.
• Looking at the historical price of this stock, it has the tendency to suddenly rise or fall.  Hence if I personally would want to not buy and hold but be an opportunist with this stock, buying when I expect the market to rise and selling when it starts falling, or when I make 10-20% which is decent return in the short term.

Technical Indicators:

• The price took Fibonacci Arc support at Rs. 886 and rose back after 1 Nov 2010.  There is a line of support there at Rs. 900.
• Price is sideways since the last 5 days.
• It is very close to the Fibonacci Arc as well is at the Fibonacci Retracement intersection at Rs. 957 around Nov 15.  This is an important decision point to watch to know which line will be used as further support - the Fibonacci line at Rs. 957 or the Fibonacci Arc.  
• If price rises along the arc it will find resistance at Rs. 1029. 
• There is a long term line of resistance, if the price crosses this line with good volume there might be good opportunity to buy. 
• Below Rs. 885, I would short this stock

BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(Analyzed for M Mohan, Kolkata)