NIFTY Had An Indecisive Week (14 Sep 2014)

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

The market fell a minor 0.33% this week, and sustained the support line.  However, it is too close to the support line for us to be relaxed.

The weekly candlestick is not a perfect Doji, but it does resemble a Doji.  This is a signal of confusion in an upward trending market.  Volume has risen during the week but range of market movement was relatively small.  The market seems to be gearing up for a bigger move.

Notably, over the past 17 weeks (4 months), the 14-week RSI is forming a bearish divergence to the NIFTY.  This needs to be watched closely, as either the RSI will rise and match NIFTY; or NIFTY will fall and match the RSI.  The divergence has sustained for quite a while now!

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NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

Biocon: Finally Inching Back to Where It Started 9 Years Ago (Sep2014)

Biocon Ltd. Monthly Chart (Each Candlestick represents one month)

Biocon Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Let's look at the long term trend of Biocon prior to charting its current situation.  

Above is the monthly chart since its IPO in 2004.  We can see that if someone invested in the IPO and held on to the share, unfortunately they have not made any profit in 9+ years.  

The current trend has been positive.  The moving 20 & 50 SMA (monthly) (not on this chart) are moving upwards. The 50 monthly SMA has recently crossed the 100 SMA upwards.  Overall the share price has moved upwards since the big fall during 2008 global markets meltdown.

Let's see the dominant trendlines on the monthly chart below.  The current months are where the long term trendlines converge, making it an important time to watch this share.

The stochastics indicator on the monthly chart is oversold (not visible on the chart) and %D has just fallen below the 80% level.  The RSI (not visible on the chart) has also formed a bearish divergence.  This is indicating a correction zone for Biocon, and so we will keenly watch the current rise, and not invest before we can see a clear indication for further rise.

A notable viewpoint is that inspite of uptrending Indian markets and the NIFTY reaching its all-time high, Biocon is still sluggish.  Biocon is zigzag in a fast-rising market, and it gives us a reason to be wary of the further movement of this share.

August made a Doji candlestick, a powerful signal on a monthly chart.  This indicates that the market is largely confused about Biocon's share price.  In September, Biocon has made a good comeback with good volumes.  Let's see if this can sustain.

Biocon has good product lines, including futuristic markets such as manufacturing injectable insulin for diabetics.  This is an ever-growing market and in the long run this share should do well if the company follows solid business practices.

Now let's see what a trader should be doing.

Currently, the entry point is around Rs. 540-550.  Tight Stoploss would be at 510, other Stoploss is at Rs. 460.  Short Target would be Rs. 590-600.  Mid-term target would be 650-680.

Unless price achieves the 540+ level, this share should be watched and not invested.  

On the lower side, Rs. 460 is a point of Resistance-turned-Support. 

The market resisted Rs. 460 for 6 consecutive months (from Dec 13 to May 14), making it s a strong holding point... and now that it has become support we can expect it will hold.

If 460 is broken, then next support is at 410 and then at 375 (Fibonacci Retracements).

Biocon Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Charted on request of Rakesh, New Delhi.

Shree Renuka Sugars: Holding Support @70

SHREE RENUKA SUGARS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Shree Renuka Sugars closed the week at 71.5.

• We can see that after a few weeks of fall, the bottom of the price has stabilized near 70 since the last 3 weeks.  This level is also very close to its long term support line as seen on the chart. This week ended with a Doji formation.  There is a good chance that this support level will hold and SRS will start rising again.
• However, if NIFTY remains low, this stock too will be affected and break its support.  If support breaks, the lower targets are 63, 52 and 35.
• If NIFTY performs well and SRS rises, the upper targets are 105 and 127.
• Seeing this, the next week or two will be crucial to see which way this stock is headed.  As of now, wait and watch before taking new positions
  
• Shree Renuka Sugars कुछ हफ्तों से गिरने के बाद ७० पर आके टिक गया है और इस से नीचे नहीं गिर रहा है.  सुप्पोर्ट लाइन भी ७० के नज़दीक ही है.  अगर निफ्टी ऊपर रही तो यह शेयर १०५ और १२७ के टार्गेट रखता है.  पर अगर निफ्टी गिरी तो ६३, ५२ और ३५ तक भी जा सकता है.  अगले हफ्ते इसका रुख देखकर फिर ही पोसिशन लें. 

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SHREE RENUKA SUGARS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis
(analyzed for Somnath, Kolkata)

Kinetic Motors: Finally, Support @26.50

KINETIC MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Kinetic Motors remained unmoved on a day even when the stock market fell sharply.

Close & CMP: 27.65

Market Outlook:

• The price has the potential to rise again from the level of 26.50.
• Can be purchased as it rises above 28.50.

Technical Indicators:

• The price formed a Doji Candlestick at its support level of 26.50.
• This support seems strong and should be able to hold fort.
• The price didn't fall even though the market crashed, indicating further strength at this support level.
• The momentum is also low and should start rising very soon.
• In nutshell, seems like a good time to look at Kinetic Motors as a buy.

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KINETIC MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Reliance Industries: Stuck in the Price Channel

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Reliance Industries is still continuing the sideways journey it began in May 2009.  The price has remained stagnant within a Rs 260 range (Rs 1175 - Rs 915) since the last 18 months.

Close and CMP: 1065.

Market Outlook:

• No big move is expected in the coming week, the price will again remain range bound, and could reach an intra-week high of 1110 before closing below it.

Technical Indicators:

• The past two weeks have ended in Doji candlesticks, showing an indecisive trend where the market is trading Reliance Industries in both directions at the same time.
• The weekly volume doubled but the price closed near the last week's close.
• The resistance is at 1116 and the support is at 990.  If the price closes above 1116 or below 990, consider that the price will run quickly in the direction of the breakout.  If the breakout happens, be ready to trade it, is sure to result into a lot of profit.

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RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

DLF: Showing Recovery Signs

DLF Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


DLF is range-bound since last 2 weeks, but closed slightly above resistance today.  Today's close & CMP: 287

Market Outlook:

• The price could rise again on Friday, the resistance is at 297.
• In the coming week price could fall again.  But if it succeeds to remain above 286, then there is a good chance that it will soon break out from its resistance at 297 as well.
• But I wouldn't take any position in the stock tomorrow morning, no exact trade signal yet.

Technical Indicators:

• The price is currently near its 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement.
• A doji candlestick has formed today and the price closed near its opening.
• Its a good sign that the price recovered after falling below its support @286 today, and closed higher.
• Next week the price will face a downward momentum, that is when we should be able to decide where this stock is headed.
• There is a momentum rise in the weekly chart (not shown here), depicting that this stock could be on its way up in January.
• DLF has suffered a lot from the LIC Housing scam.  If any negative news appears about DLF's involvements during the investigation, it could seriously affect the price.  So that is the X-factor which could upset all expectations.  Otherwise, the stock is showing good recovery.

DLF Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(analyzed for DMurthy, Namakkal)

Tata Motors: Falling towards its support line

TATA MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

The price made a small movement today and closed at 1301 (very near to its opening price)

Market Outlook:

• The price could fall further, target is the support at 1265.
• Big fat chance that the price will rebound once it hits the support line at 1265 and rise again.

Technical Indicators:

• The price is falling currently after hitting the resistance at 1371.
• After an all-day fall yesterday, today a Doji candlestick formed; giving hope that the market is in a mood to honor its support level at 1265.
• Once the price hits 1265, there is a very good chance it'll bounce back and go upto 1376.  But this will only confirm once the price reaches support.

All previous posts about Tata Motors

TATA MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

ABB: Opportunity to go short

ABB Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The price remained range-bound today and ABB closed at 804.

Market Outlook:

• This looks like a shorting opportunity with a targets of 775 and 760, and stop-loss near 820.

Technical Indicators:

• There is a Doji candlestick followed by a Spinning Top, and the price has just tested and failed to break through its resistance.  Moreover, today's candlestick is completely contained within yesterday's range.
• The trading volume has also dropped back significantly.
• All signs, that ABB has failed to climb above its resistance and is now falling again.

ABB Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Tata Motors: Resistance Too Strong

TATA MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Tata Motors made a weak rise today and remained bound in a very short range.

Market Outlook:

• The price faced very strong resistance at 1371 today and failed at the attempt to rise above it.
• There is a good chance that the price will start falling, don't get into this one right now, unless you are looking for opportunities to short.
• When it starts to fall, the target for shorting would be around 1270.

Technical Indicators: 

• There is a long term line of resistance prohibiting price rise.
• The price tried to break through this resistance line today as well as 4 days ago, and failed on both attempts.
• There was a Doji formation yesterday and a small range bound trading today.
• The price is very well into oversold levels.
• All indicators point downwards at the moment, the stock is ready to fall towards its support.

All previous posts about Tata Motors 

TATA MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Airtel taking support of 200 DMA, Resistance at 318.50

AIRTEL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Airtel remained range-bound on a day when the market tanked, and was able to hold fort and remain where it opened.

Open: 312.95  Close: 313.45  High: 319.50  Low: 311

Market Outlook:

• Market remained indecisive today and has tested its previous support at 318.50 which is now acting as resistance.

Technical Indicators:

• An indecisive Doji candlestick formed today.
• The price tried to return back to its support line at 318.50.  But now this same support line is now acting as resistance.
• The price has taken support of 200 DMA near Rs 307.
• Tomorrow is a crucial day and the price could try to rise above 318.50 once again.

AIRTEL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

3i Infotech Weekly: 25-29 Oct'10: Doji Candlestick

3i Infotech NSE Weekly Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

People have shown great interest in looking at the 3i Infotech charts on my blog, so I'm adding a weekly analysis of this stock as well.

3i Infotech has formed a Doji star.  After a good rise last week, this week has seen some profit booking, leading to a balanced market with neither the buyers nor the sellers in control.

The week opened at 66.9 and closed at 67.2.  The intra week high and low were 70.25 and 65.2.  This is less than 10% volatility and almost negligible difference between the open and close price, inspite of good volume.

Outlook for next week: The price is expected to move sideways for the coming week.

Technical Indicators:

The price finally peeked above the 50 week moving average after 6 months.  This is a good sign as the stock is struggling to break its sideways trend and rise upwards.  

But the appearance of a doji candlestick shows that the market is not very sure if the price should be pushed beyond the 50 week moving average.  In fact, the price went beyond this line during the week but the price closed below this line.  That's not too optimistic

The stock has slowed its journey towards the oversold levels.  So it might soon turn downwards.  Based on this indicator, the price should move sideways next week, and then fall back in the week after that.  Unless of course, some big news comes in.

Talking of big news, there are rumors that Satyam Mahindra may consider buying 3i Infotech.  This is unconfirmed, but if this happens, 3i Infotech could suddenly be seen soaring high above its current price level.  

Reliance Comm Weekly: 25-29 Oct'10: Doji Candlestick

Reliance Communications Weekly Stock Chart on NSE Technical Analysis

The NSE weekly chart of Reliance Communications formed a Doji for this week.  It's a picture perfect formation, the stock price closed at less than Re. 1 higher on Friday than what it opened at on Monday.  What a super indecisive time for Reliance Comm!  The market is confused on what way this will move.

The week opened at 179.5 and closed at 180.1.  In between it made a high and low of 185.35 and 173.2.  

Outlook for next week:  The picture is not pretty.  The next week could turn negative price could fall back to end the week negatively.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages look like creepers hanging from trees in the jungle.  The price has stayed below even the 20 week moving average for most part of the past 2 years.  And that's bad!

This week, it has crossed the 20 week moving average and touched its 50 day moving average.  Historical evidence shows that the stock price does not manage to stay above its 50 day moving average, and so breaking this level to rise upwards is going to take a lot of energy.

The stock is already showing oversold levels.  This means its a possible time for a downhill journey this week.  

The picture perfect Doji candlestick shows excessive indecisiveness amongst buyers and sellers.  Even then, the interest has not waned and the volume of trading is almost double the previous week.

Tata Motors Weekly: 25 to 29 Oct 2010: Doji Formation

Tata Motors Weekly Stock Chart on NSE: Technical Analysis

The trading of Tata Motors has reduced this week, and the price has moved sideways.  Next week could see a negative candle being formed (price at end of week will be lower than beginning of week), if the buying interest slows down further, as people will think that the market has reached its top and so begin to sell their positions.

Technical Indicators:

• After a steep rise in the previous weeks, a second doji candle has formed this week.  This shows that buying has slowed down and people are holding on to this stock.  
• This is also visible in the slowed down volume of this stock.  The market is waiting before deciding on whether to buy or sell Tata Motors.  

IDBI Repeats Doji Formation

The stock has remained overbought for entire September which shows continued uptrend.  Today’s candle is a doji which shows the market is facing selling pressure at its current point.  Same happened 3 days earlier but the market has risen, so it’s uncertain what’ll happen.  No specific negative formations visible though to suggest any steep negative change, however the steep uprise could face a curb soon.