NIFTY Ends Week at Range Resistance (21 Sep 2014)

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

The S&P CNX NIFTY traveled a range of 235 points during the week, but finally closed at 8121.45, a marginal 51 points higher than its open.

As visible on the chart, the range in which NIFTY is traveling since mid-May 2014 still remains valid, and the market closed on the line of resistance, after falling to the middle of the range during the week.

The weekly candlestick is a Hanging Man.  After last week's Doji at the market top, a Hanging Man is not a very positive signal.  The RSI has remained stationery as well and the divergence is not yet cured.  Higher volume shows improving interest trading in the market.

Will NIFTY breakout from the point of Resistance and jump above, or will it dive back into the range?  This should be observed during the week.

8145 is the resistance level for this week.  This keeps going higher each week as the resistance is a slant and not horizontal.

Unfortunately, NIFTY has fallen below the 6-week steep-diagonal support line.  This isn't a heartening signal.

(1) A strong upward move pulling the index high from the resistance point (8145 is the resistance level for the week) ; &(2) the index closing above the resistance line for 2-3 consecutive days can lead to positive signal if other indicators agree. Unless this happens, do not go in for long positions.


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NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

NIFTY Hits Resistance: Weekly Technical Chart 6Sep14

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY closed at its resistance on 5Sep14.

It's be a superman-week for NIFTY - up, up & away!

The index has hit resistance near 8086, the weekly closing on 5Sep14.

The 50-day SMA is happily facing north, volume has fallen but still above the average, RSI is above 70% as well.  All positive signals.

If the index jumps above resistance, we well see some new market high next week.  Otherwise there could be some correction to around 7850 levels before hitting support.

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

LS Election Results till August 2014 & Current NIFTY Analysis

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

The excitement over poll results is diminishing as market is returning to basics. NIFTY has formed a double top near 7968. The candlesticks have shrunk in size. Market has remained at same level since almost 2 trading weeks. Volume has shrunk. Short positions can be taken when market falls from resistance levels. 

Yet, there is a bullish price channel in which the index is traveling and this needs to be watched keenly for breakouts.

This market is currently in a wait-n-watch zone and supports short-term positions, with larger positions to be taken when resistance or support breaks.  

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NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Continues in Downward Price Channel

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis
(each candlestick represents one week of movement)

Ever since NIFTY peaked in Nov 2010, it has been falling within a price channel as is visible on the chart.  Moreover, the entire week saw a small price movement even when the trading volume was good.  This week the price may fall further and touch its support line at around 4380 during the week. Let's see what happens from there.

If the price falls below 4380, then there could be an opportunity to short NIFTY.  If it doesn't and bounces back, then there could be as short-term opportunity to go long or expect a positive movement.  No long term correction in sight, though.

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY rises, but will this sustain?

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis:
(each candlestick represents one week of movement)

Nifty had a fun day on its post-Diwali opening session and rose by almost 160 points as compared to its previous close.

This is a welcome rise, but there is the strong line of resistance to break near 5450.  This resistance has lasted over an year now, and is quite strong.  Nifty is moving in a price channel and it will be interesting to watch what it does once it hits the resistance.

If NIFTY breaks above 5450 with good power, it would be a very positive sign.  Otherwise, prepare for another fall!

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Outlook for the Week July 4 - 8, 2011

NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS:

This has been a good week for NIFTY, after it bounced back creating a hammer formation from the dreaded 5200 level in the last week.  However, the next week can be difficult and the index could fall again.

You can see that there is a line of resistance which is applicable since Nov 2010, i.e. 7 months ago.  This makes it a strong line of resistance to reckon with. 

The index reached this line of resistance twice and then fell back again.  Out of these previous two times, it tried to break above this line for an entire month in the Apr-May 2011 period but couldn't do so and fell back again.  You can see that all the weekly highs during that period touched the line of resistance but failed to rise above it.

Now again for the 3rd time, the index is about to reach this line of resistance and will meet it around 5717.  This is an important point to watch out for.  If the index rises above this level then we can look at a positive movement in the coming weeks.  However, if 5717 is not breached and the index falls below, then we would ideally expect it to head towards 5350 and then 5200 before making any further movements. 

For now, wait and see what happens at 5717 before making any important trade decisions.

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NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS

NIFTY Outlook: Where is the tricky index headed?

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis:

As the chart predicted last month (see my previous on NIFTY), 5500 has been an important level throughout May and June.  The index remained around this level initially and then fell to the 5200 level.

Why is 5200 important?  

The market has reached this level for the 3rd time since July 2010 (almost an year ago).  Last time was in Feb 2011, when the market dipped below 5200 briefly but rallied back upwards. This time again, the market has reached 5200 and has now shown signs of support.

Two more patterns have emerged.

The first is another important support at 5350.  Remaining above this level is a good sign as you can see in the chart.  While 5200 has served as a bottom, 5350 has served as the stronger support level over the past year.

Another is the diagonal set of parallel lines of support and resistance for the short term period since May 2011.  The line of support passes through 5200 just where the market dipped to this level in the current week.  This makes 5200 a very important level in the current week and that the market has shown support and remained above 5200 is a good sign.

Moreover, the volume has consistently lowered throughout the year and the current weekly volumes are atleast 50% or less as compared to a year ago.  The volume has progressively fallen.  This is showing a lowered interest in the market at the current rates.  This could be a sign that the market is readying for a move soon.  

For the time being it does seem like the market will rebound towards the higher levels after sputtering to a bottom of 5200.  But in the longer term, it is still doubtful if the market will be able to sustain above this level considering the socio-economic and political situation in India.  Defer from making long term decisions right now and trade for the shorter term, and beware of any fall below 5200 as this is an important support level.

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NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

Power Grid: Remains Stuck In Price Channel

POWER GRID Daily BSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

• Power Grid continues to remain in its price channel and is under its resistance @ 100.  
• It has support in the 94-95 level.
• Since a few days it is trying to break above 100 but has failed to do so.  
• Refrain from buying unless it goes and stays above 100.
• Power Grid काफी समय से १०० से ऊपर नहीं जा पा रहा है. जब तक १०० के ऊपर न जाये तब तक इसे खरीदने से रुकें.

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POWER GRID Daily BSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

BF Utilities: Bouncing Upward From Support Line

BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

BF Utilities showed recovery after touching its support line at 686 and another diagonal support line.

Close & CMP: 714

Market Outlook:

• 686 is the long-term support for BF Utilities, and the price has managed to remain above 686.
• Good opportunity to buy with stoploss below 646.  And a possible sell around 850-900. (If NIFTY underperforms, then sell sooner!)
• If the price falls and remains below 686 for a few sessions, it'll be a good opportunity to short.
• BF Utilities अपनी सुप्पोर्ट लाइन को छूकर वापिस ऊपर की ओर चल दिया है.  ६८६ इस शेयर का पुराना सुप्पोर्ट है.  अगर निफ्टी सही रहा तो बी ऍफ़ यूटीलीटीज़ को खरीदा जा सकता है, और ८५०-९०० के आस पास बेचा जा सकता है. पर अगर निफ्टी नीचे की तरफ घूम गयी तो जल्दी बेच देना चहिये.  और अगर ६८६ के नीचे गिरता है तो शोर्ट फ्यूचर में इन्वेस्ट किया जा सकता है.

Technical Indicators:

• The price has moved within a channel of 686-957 since a long time and the price bounced upwards after hitting its support at 686.  The trading volume is good and the momentum is also showing upwards.

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BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

BF Utilities: Sideways Movement

BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

BF Utilities fell again today, after hitting the short-term resistance at 900.

Close & CMP: 841.35

Market Outlook:

• Yesterday, the price had risen as an important court verdict cleared the way for a new project, but seems like today the market still chose to not respond positively.
• The stock price fell today after hitting 900, so 900 has emerged as a strong resistance for the time being.
• Can be viewed positively only if it breaks both 900 and 957.
• BF Utilities ९०० को छू कर गिर गया, जबकि कल इस कंपनी को फायदेकारक कोर्ट फैसला मिला था.  

Technical Indicators:

• The price is in a range of 957-686 since a long time, with some exceptions.
• A bearish counterattack candlestick formed today.
• There was a sudden surge in interest, but in making this stock price fall.
• The operators are playing this one heavily, expect further volatility in BF Util, could be a good one for day traders to make short term trades.

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BF UTILITIES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

ADSL (Allied Digital Services) In A Bearish Dive

ADSL (Allied Digital Services Ltd) Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:
(As this is a weekly chart, each bar/candlestick represents 1 week of activity)

ADSL had remained sideways for more than an year, before it finally made a bearish breakout in Nov 10.  Since then, the stock price has continuously fallen.

Close & CMP: 155.35

Market Outlook:

• The price could make a small upward correction but then will fall downwards again.
• The next level of support where the price should get some consolidation is at 140.
• ADSL का भाव नवम्बर से गिर रहा है.  इस वक़्त इसमें थोड़े से उपरी मुदाव की सम्भावना है, पर रुख तो नीचे की तरफ ही है.  १४० के पास इस को सुप्पोर्ट मिलना चहिये.

Technical Indicators:

• Three black crows has appeared on the weekly chart, a strong bearish signal.
• 3 important trendlines converged at 195.  The price failed to break above 195 and has remained below.  This is a double bearish signal followed by the preceding bearish breakout in November 2010.
• The price is currently trading within a price channel.
• All indicators are pointing towards the possibility of an upward correction.  So the price could go upwards and hit its resistance in the price channel between 175-155 and then fall back again.
• 140 is a good support level and some sideways movement and consolidation can be expected at this level.
• Overall, a bearish movement in ADSL.  Let's see what happens in the 140-120 price range, which is a support zone for ADSL.  

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ADSL (Allied Digital Services Ltd) Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(analyzed for Ravichandran, Bangalore)

Sterlite Techno: Bungee Jumping

STERLITE TECHNO Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:
(This is a weekly chart so each bar/candlestick represents one week of activity)

Sterlite Techno fell another day today.  Close & CMP: 63.45

Market Outlook:

• The stock price has continuously fallen since July 2010.  And it is not showing any major recovery signs as of yet.
• It should make an upward correction on hitting Rs 58 price levels.
• After hitting 58 and going upwards again, it will try to head for 72.  If it rises above 72, then there is hope for this stock.

Technical Indicators:

• The price has been continuously falling since 7 months within a steep downward price channel. Currently, the price is headed towards its expected support level at 58.
• We can make a trade decision based on how it behaves near 58.
• The weekly chart has created the Three Black Crows formation (though this week is only 2 days old and there are still 4 more days for the weekly candle to change this formation).
• The stock price is deeply oversold since a long time, and hence a correction might be due anytime soon.
• The volume has also dipped, another sign that an upward correction could take place very soon.

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STERLITE TECHNO Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(analyzed for Alok, Noida)

Reliance Industries: Stuck in the Price Channel

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Reliance Industries is still continuing the sideways journey it began in May 2009.  The price has remained stagnant within a Rs 260 range (Rs 1175 - Rs 915) since the last 18 months.

Close and CMP: 1065.

Market Outlook:

• No big move is expected in the coming week, the price will again remain range bound, and could reach an intra-week high of 1110 before closing below it.

Technical Indicators:

• The past two weeks have ended in Doji candlesticks, showing an indecisive trend where the market is trading Reliance Industries in both directions at the same time.
• The weekly volume doubled but the price closed near the last week's close.
• The resistance is at 1116 and the support is at 990.  If the price closes above 1116 or below 990, consider that the price will run quickly in the direction of the breakout.  If the breakout happens, be ready to trade it, is sure to result into a lot of profit.

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RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

3i Infotech Weekly: 8-12 Nov 10: Faces Resistance and Falls

3i INFOTECH Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

This week we see a long-legged Doji candlestick.  

The week opened at 67 and closed at CMP 67.1.  In between it made an intra-week high and low of 72.15 and 65.35 respectively.

Market Outlook:

The next week price could fall.

If it falls, the week could close between Rs. 61-63.

Technical Indicators:

Long legged Doji candlestick formation this week, 3rd successive sideways week.

Price tried to climb through resistance but failed completely and retraced.

The 20 week moving average is way below the 50 week moving average.  Looking historically, 3i gives a good upwards move when the 20 week moving average crosses the 50 week moving average from below.  This is not expected to happen any soon but when it happens, be sure to buy 3i for some good gains.

3i INFOTECH Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Bajaj Holdings Reaches Resistance, Short-term Correction is Expected

BAJAJ HOLDINGS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Bajaj Holdings dropped today.  It opened at Rs 945 and closed at CMP 932.40.

Market Outlook:

• The price will fall further tomorrow. 
• Support is expected at 909 and then at 880 (if price falls below 909).  It should began rising back after reaching these levels.
• Don't buy or sell yet, lets wait for some signals.

Technical Indicators:

• There is a price channel within which this stock is rising speedily.  The swings are about Rs. 70 up and down within the price channel.
• If the price falls and reaches its support trendline and returns back, its a good time to buy.
• If the price breaks resistance trendline and rises upwards for 2-3 days with good trading interest, that's a buy signal.
• Price is continuously taking support at the short and medium moving averages.
• The last 3 days, candlesticks have stayed within the price range set on 3 Nov - Rs 915 - Rs 949 and turned negative.  This is signaling a fall in price for the time being.  We'll wait for the next swing to enter and exit.

My Strategy for Trading Fast Rising Stocks:

• Stocks like Bajaj Holdings which are rising steadily for a period of time, fall back much more quickly than they rise.  
• Hence, in such stocks, I don't buy and hold.  I usually buy at swing lows and sell at swing highs.  
• This gives me good profit without the risk of suddenly losing money, and keeps my bank account liquid and gives good consistent cash flow.  
• You may have a different strategy and all strategies are good, so if yours works for you, stick to it.  

BAJAJ HOLDINGS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(Analyzed for Prashant, Rajkot)

Seamec stuck between Rs 165 and Rs 139

SEAMEC Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Seamec closed sideways again on 4th Nov 2010 (This chart is not reflected Mahurat trading on 5th but it does not make much difference to the analysis)

The CMP of Seamec as on 5th Nov 2010 is Rs 153.65.

Market Outlook:  

• The stock price is volatile and sidways since a long time.  The next week will see another sideways movement with not much different from this week's close @ 153.65.  
• For now, there are no buy-sell signals on this stock and I recommend to wait before taking any move on Seamec.

Technical Indicators:

• There is dual support available to the price at Rs 139.  There is a support line from a previous low and there is the Fibonacci 50% support as well.
• A long term diagonal support line has fallen below Rs 139 in late August and is no longer offering support to the company's stock price.
• If the price rises, it can meet resistance at Rs. 165, which is the Fibonacci 38.2% level in the current retracement.

News (Fundamentals):

• Seamec has posted a loss in the previous quarter, and results of this quarter are awaited.
• The company has announced 30% dividend.  From what I gather, this is the first dividend in 12 years.  This might simply be an attempt to generate interest in an otherwise uninteresting stock, or the company may actually be upto something.  No news about it yet.
• There is no significant news about the company.  The market will move in some direction, either up or down, after news of the quarterly results comes out.
• Unless the quarterly results show that there is a change in the sales or income of the company, or any big deals are announced, there isn't much scope for Seamec to gain in the near future.

SEAMEC Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(Analyzed on request of Sreeni, Bahrain)

Jubilant Foods Resistance @ Rs 565

JUBILANT FOODS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Jubilant Food is marching ahead since its IPO early this year.  Currently, the price is sideways since the last 3 months, topping close to the Rs 560 range.

The price fell on 5 Nov 2010, opening at 565 and closing at 552.65.

Market Outlook: The price is trying to break its high and climb upwards.  There is no buy-sell signal yet.  If price crosses Rs. 565 and stays up for 2-3 days, there might be a buy signal.  There is a price fall on 5th Nov but I feel this is short term profit booking and the price could rise again soon after a brief correction.

Technical Indicators:

The price has moved sideways since 3 months.  

Right now, the price is trying to break through its previous high.  The intraday highs have managed to do this since the past 3 days, but the price returns to close below the previous high.

If price closes above the  line as seen on the chart and remains above it for 2-3 days, there might be a signal to go long.

If the price falls for a few days, which seems unlikely, the support is available at Rs 465.

News:

Jubilant Foods has had a great quarter and a great year.  It is planning to expand the business and penetrate both wide and deep.  They are also adding accompaniments to the pizzas such as desserts and pastas.  Also, they have a range of low-cost pizzas as well to appeal to a larger audience.

The stock seems a good one for the long run, and should grow in 2011 as well.

(Analyzed on request of Mohan, Kolkata)

Chart Source: in.reuters.com

JUBILANT FOODS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

SBI Rising: Gap-Up: How far will it go?

SBI Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

State Bank of India stock price on NSE jumped and opened gap up.  It ran crazy throughout the day in only one direction - upwards.

The price opened at Rs 3298 and closed at Rs 3433.45, a big jump.

I'd gone long on 25th Oct 2010 at Rs 3220, based on my analysis of 22nd Oct 2010.  This has paid off well, even though it seemed for a moment that my stop at Rs. 3065 will get hit.  But it didn't, and I'm enjoying this bull run thoroughly and waiting for a sell signal to encash my profit!

Market Outlook:  The price will climb up tomorrow as well, but not more than 30 points, and will close below 3465.  After that, the market will go sideways and bounce off the price channel support.

How far will this bull run go? If all other variables remain the same, this will last for about 3-4 more months.

Technical Indicators:

Big gap up and bull run through out the day, a Marabozu candlestick.

Price is moving in a channel as visible on the chart.

Gujarat NRE Coke: Price Channel & Resistance @ Rs 70

GUJARAT NRE COKE Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Gujarat NRE Coke stock price went up today, but continued sideways.  It has remained sideways since mid-May after it fell through its line of resistance.

Price closed at Rs. 63.95.

Market Outlook:  The price is expected remain around today's close.  Tomorrow EOD should close between Rs 64 and Rs. 65.5. 

Technical Indicators:

We can see long term lines of support and resistance on the chart.  

Support is available at Rs 54.  

The strong resistance lies at Rs. 71.  If this resistance is broken it will be a very good opportunity to go long.

Head and shoulders pattern has formed recently.  If the price falls and fails to cross 69, there might be a downfall in the price again.

News:

Gujarat NRE Coke has declared ambitious plans to invest in Australian mines and increase production over the next 5 years.  But this is not expected to have any immediate effect on the stock

Let's see if the quarterly results will do any magic soon.

(Analyzed on request by KP, Mumbai)

Ashok Leyland : Resistance @ Rs. 77

ASHOK LEYLAND Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:


Ashok Leyland is moving within a price channel as was discussed in my 22 Oct blog post.  Also as was observed in that post, the price has continued to hug its 50 day moving average.


Today the market closed at 75.3, a fall from the opening price of 76.25.


Market Outlook:  The market close lower tomorrow.  After that, it will try and recover its 50 day moving average.


Technical Indicators:

• The blue dot shows a point where the price will have to make a final decision to break out of its Rs 70 resistance line.  This will happen in the 4th week of Nov '10.  
• If market remains above Rs. 70 for 2-3 consecutive days, then based on other positive factors, a long position can be entered into.