Balkrishna Industries: Be Careful & Watch for Breakouts - 6Sep14 Weekly Chart Analysis

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Positions in Balkrishna Industries should be avoided right now, till the following happens:-

Short-term perspective: @ Rs. 800 with tight stop loss

Long-term perspective: @ Rs. 830 & above

Observations:-

Balkrishna Industries stunned the market with >300% growth in 12 months from June 13 to July 14.

After a record-high @ Rs. 833, the stock price fell and created anxious moments for traders who entered late.  The price has risen again this week, bringing cheer to many.

But is this a good time to enter Balkrishna Ind? Probably not.

Why:

1) The Head-&-Shoulders pattern seems to be forming.  Just one more dip and the pattern would get confirmed.  This is a potential price reversal pattern and so until we are sure that Head & Shoulders is not forming, new purchase should be avoided.  A clearer view of Head & Shoulders formation can be seen below.

2) The support line is near Rs 683.  It is a short term support (since July14).  The same price level is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement from the top.  683 is also the base of the Head & Shoulders pattern.  This line has sustained well.  If share price falls below Rs. 683, danger bells would be set ringing and a price reversal may occur.

3) There is a short term resistance line going diagonally, as seen in Chart 1.  The current price at Rs 772 where it is fighting with resistance.

4) The positives are:- 50-day moving average is at >30 degree incline,  RSI has sustained near 70% level.  A weekly Marabozu candle has formed.  Volume is near the average.  These are positive signs, which tell us that the stock still has strength.

5) Till it breaks above the "Head" at Rs 833, the stock should be watched keenly.


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Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Dabur: Sliding...

DABUR Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:
(This is a weekly chart.  Each bar/candlestick shows 1 week of activity)


Dabur has been falling since a while.  Last week was one of the biggest falls in a single week for Dabur.

Close & CMP: 91

Market Outlook:

• The price seems headed downwards.
• If price manages to go above 93, only then there is any hope for Dabur.
• The price currently found some support at 87, but it does not seem like a strong support and the price has a strong possibility of falling further.
• डाबर का भाव गिरता चला जा रहा है.  उपरान्त हेड एंड शौलडर्स (सर व् कंधे) की बनावट भी चार्ट पर दिख रही है.  अगर भाव ९३ के ऊपर नहीं जा सका अगले २-३ दिनों में, तो फिर समझो की यह शेयर कुछ और समय के लिए तो ज़रूर फिसल गया.

Technical Indicators:

• The dreaded head and shoulders pattern has finally shown up.  We were expecting this pattern since November.
• This week's fall in price is comparable to only one other week in the entire past 3 years.
• The trading force is high.
• The stock price will try to climb back upwards but it seems unlikely that it will succeed in doing so.

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DABUR Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis


(analyzed for Prashant, Surat)

Thangamayil Jewellery: Negative Signals

THANGAMAYIL JEWELLERY Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

(This is a weekly chart, so each bar/candlestick represents 1 week of activity)

Thangamayil Jewellery is a 2010 IPO which started trading on 19th February 2010.  It enjoyed a bullish run for the first 6 months.  Since then, for the last 5 months, it has been moving sideways.

Market Outlook:

• The price seems to have stagnated, and unless it breaks above 190, there is no chance it will revive its bull run.  For now, there is a high chance that this price will start moving downwards soon.
• The levels of support are 159 and 149 respectively.
• Don't enter this stock right now, and get ready to sell your existing Thangamayil if the price continues downwards.
• If Price Falling below 159 --> exit any long positions.  
• If Price Falling below 149--> Take short positions and enjoy the bear run.

Technical Indicators:

• A pattern resembling the head and shoulders has emerged.  It cant be exactly called HnS pattern but has a close resemblance.
• The price has fallen below its long term diagonal support line today

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THANGAMAYIL JEWELLERY Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Reliance Communications: Support @ 132

RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Stock price of Reliance Communications is falling like a missile from the sky.  Today it closed at 143.65.

Market Outlook:

• Where will this fall stop?
  The price should stop falling after falling another 11 rupees, at Rs. 132.
• If it starts rising after 132, good opportunity to buy and make money on this one (its been a while since anyone made money on this one)

Technical Indicators:

• The dreaded Head and Shoulders has formed recently, indicating that the price is going to keep pushing down further.
• The market bottomed out twice at 132 in the past 2 years.  This level is only 11 rs away from today's close.
• If market takes support of 132 and rises back, its a good time to buy.  Target can be decided only after it U-turns.
• In case it tumbles below 132, the next support is at 113.

RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Dabur Weekly: 1-5 Nov 10: Support @ Rs 96

DABUR INDIA Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Dabur India closed the week with a spinning top candlestick.  Trading was at one of its lowest in the past 4 months.

The week closed at Rs. 100.10 (This chart only shows updation upto 4th Nov 2010 which closed at Rs. 99.6).

Market Outlook:  

• The price has good support at Rs. 96.  By end of next week, this should be achieved and the price will bounce back from here.  
• If the price goes below Rs 96 and stays below for some days, it could be difficult for the price to return up again for some more time.  
• Don't buy unless the price bounces back from Rs 96, and buy if it bounces off Rs. 96 and starts rising again.

Technical Indicators:

• Fibonacci 78.6% and a 1-year old support line merge at Rs. 96, making it a very important support line for the price which has otherwise been falling since late September.  Once the price regains its uprise after reaching Rs 96, its a good time to buy the stock.  
• If the price falls below Rs 96, the next support can only be found at Rs. 82 price levels. 
• A shoulder and a head have formed at Rs 110 and Rs. 113.  Is there a head and shoulders in the making?  If the price falls to 96, rises back to 110 and falls back again and goes below 96, jump out of the Dabur ship for the time being, or go short to make money.

News:

• Dabur completed a buyout of  Turkey`s Hobi Kozmetik Group last month, and will use this platform for a global launch into Turkey and surrounding European and Middle Eastern Countries. 
• The earnings have increased 10% over the same quarter in last year, which is modest and not attractive considering inflation and increase in consumer demand.  International acquisitions might add flavor to the company in the long run but for now there is no glamor in its quarterly results.

DABUR INDIA Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Gujarat NRE Coke: Price Channel & Resistance @ Rs 70

GUJARAT NRE COKE Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Gujarat NRE Coke stock price went up today, but continued sideways.  It has remained sideways since mid-May after it fell through its line of resistance.

Price closed at Rs. 63.95.

Market Outlook:  The price is expected remain around today's close.  Tomorrow EOD should close between Rs 64 and Rs. 65.5. 

Technical Indicators:

We can see long term lines of support and resistance on the chart.  

Support is available at Rs 54.  

The strong resistance lies at Rs. 71.  If this resistance is broken it will be a very good opportunity to go long.

Head and shoulders pattern has formed recently.  If the price falls and fails to cross 69, there might be a downfall in the price again.

News:

Gujarat NRE Coke has declared ambitious plans to invest in Australian mines and increase production over the next 5 years.  But this is not expected to have any immediate effect on the stock

Let's see if the quarterly results will do any magic soon.

(Analyzed on request by KP, Mumbai)

Dabur: Head & Shoulders vs Support Line

DABUR INDIA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

This may look like a complicated chart, so don't rush through the explanation.

Dabur closed at 99.35 today after opening at 100.25.  The price has been sideways for 4 days now after a big fall on 28 Oct '10.

Market Outlook:  The price will remain sideways in the next 2-3 days.  No trade signal.

In the meantime, it will find support near Rs 99 price level.  

If this breaks, the next support is at Rs 96.5.

Technical Indicators:

• The chart has formed a head and shoulders pattern.
• The short term moving average has pierced the long term moving average from above.  
• The price is quite below even its 100 day moving average.
• There is a 1-year old support trend line which has recently given support to the falling price at Rs 98.25 as seen on the chart.  This line will extend support @ Rs. 99 levels in the next 3-4 days.  The breach of this line downwards could be dangerous.
• There is another point of support around Rs 96.  If this too is broken, a downtrend is imminent.  

Dabur: Head & Shoulders vs Support Line

DABUR INDIA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

This may look like a complicated chart, so don't rush through the explanation.

Dabur closed at 99.35 today after opening at 100.25.  The price has been sideways for 4 days now after a big fall on 28 Oct '10.

Market Outlook:  The price will remain sideways in the next 2-3 days.  No trade signal.

In the meantime, it will find support near Rs 99 price level.  

If this breaks, the next support is at Rs 96.5.

Technical Indicators:


The chart has formed a head and shoulders pattern.


The short term moving average has pierced the long term moving average from above.  


The price is quite below even its 100 day moving average.


There is a 1-year old support trend line which has recently given support to the falling price at Rs 98.25 as seen on the chart.  This line will extend support @ Rs. 99 levels in the next 3-4 days.  The breach of this line downwards could be dangerous.


There is another point of support around Rs 96.  If this too is broken, a downtrend is imminent.  

TVS Motors - No Signals Yet but watch out for a bottom at Rs. 70

In yesterday's post, I had pointed out that 3 lines of support are merging on the TVS Motors stock price chart on NSE, and it would be important which of these lines the price breaks and which one it respects.

Interestingly (or not so interestingly), the intraday low fell below all 3 support lines (2 trend lines, 1 50 day moving average).  But it climbed back and closed above all 3 lines of support.  This makes the next day more interesting to watch before taking a position.

There is a line of support to the TVS Motors stock price on NSE at Rs. 70.  This was a level where the price found some resistance before it gapped up and created this line into support in mid-Aug 2010.  We can see that this line of support has indeed been quite "supportive" to the price.  

This will be a line to watch out for at Rs. 70 price level.  If this line is crossed with good volume and followed by negative candles, the market might not rise up soon.  But if this line is respected, the price will go up again.

The stock price has formed a Reverse head and shoulders pattern.  The price today has fallen below the reverse shoulder, which is not a good sign.  Other indicators also point towards a decline.

The price could fall further on Monday, obstacled by 2 diagonal support trend lines, the 50 day moving average, and the Rs. 70 support line.