NIFTY Technical Analysis August - September 2016

NIFTY Monthly Candlestick Chart on 24th August 2016

NIFTY Monthly Technical Analysis

I did this on 24th August 2016.  NIFTY was at 8635 on that day.  The chart is long-term view with each candlestick representing a month of NIFTY's trading activity.

A Fibonacci Retracement is drawn from the market top near 8900 in Jan-Mar 2015 to the previous swing low in Aug-Sep 2013 from where the rally begun that ended in Mar 2015.

We can observe that from the high, the market found support at 6825 near 61.8% retracement of the move.   From this support, the market is moving upwards again.

Using these pivots, I think that 8900 will continue to remain an important resistance level.  The market is near this level today, and so we can expect a big movement upwards or downwards soon.

Downwards, the major support is 6825.  Upwards, the market can move to 11000+ or to 10250 in a smaller move.  These are the pivots for resistance / targets if NIFTY manages to break through 8900 and sustain an upward momentum.

In either case, the market has neared a decision point after many months of green (positive) candlesticks.  We should wait to see what the market does and once it gives a clear indication from 8900, new positions can be entered in long or short.

The market position as of today:



(Charts from Zerodha Kite HTML5 trading platform)

NIFTY Ends Week at Range Resistance (21 Sep 2014)

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

The S&P CNX NIFTY traveled a range of 235 points during the week, but finally closed at 8121.45, a marginal 51 points higher than its open.

As visible on the chart, the range in which NIFTY is traveling since mid-May 2014 still remains valid, and the market closed on the line of resistance, after falling to the middle of the range during the week.

The weekly candlestick is a Hanging Man.  After last week's Doji at the market top, a Hanging Man is not a very positive signal.  The RSI has remained stationery as well and the divergence is not yet cured.  Higher volume shows improving interest trading in the market.

Will NIFTY breakout from the point of Resistance and jump above, or will it dive back into the range?  This should be observed during the week.

8145 is the resistance level for this week.  This keeps going higher each week as the resistance is a slant and not horizontal.

Unfortunately, NIFTY has fallen below the 6-week steep-diagonal support line.  This isn't a heartening signal.

(1) A strong upward move pulling the index high from the resistance point (8145 is the resistance level for the week) ; &(2) the index closing above the resistance line for 2-3 consecutive days can lead to positive signal if other indicators agree. Unless this happens, do not go in for long positions.


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NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

NIFTY Had An Indecisive Week (14 Sep 2014)

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

The market fell a minor 0.33% this week, and sustained the support line.  However, it is too close to the support line for us to be relaxed.

The weekly candlestick is not a perfect Doji, but it does resemble a Doji.  This is a signal of confusion in an upward trending market.  Volume has risen during the week but range of market movement was relatively small.  The market seems to be gearing up for a bigger move.

Notably, over the past 17 weeks (4 months), the 14-week RSI is forming a bearish divergence to the NIFTY.  This needs to be watched closely, as either the RSI will rise and match NIFTY; or NIFTY will fall and match the RSI.  The divergence has sustained for quite a while now!

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NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

NIFTY Hits Resistance: Weekly Technical Chart 6Sep14

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY closed at its resistance on 5Sep14.

It's be a superman-week for NIFTY - up, up & away!

The index has hit resistance near 8086, the weekly closing on 5Sep14.

The 50-day SMA is happily facing north, volume has fallen but still above the average, RSI is above 70% as well.  All positive signals.

If the index jumps above resistance, we well see some new market high next week.  Otherwise there could be some correction to around 7850 levels before hitting support.

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Balkrishna Industries: Be Careful & Watch for Breakouts - 6Sep14 Weekly Chart Analysis

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Positions in Balkrishna Industries should be avoided right now, till the following happens:-

Short-term perspective: @ Rs. 800 with tight stop loss

Long-term perspective: @ Rs. 830 & above

Observations:-

Balkrishna Industries stunned the market with >300% growth in 12 months from June 13 to July 14.

After a record-high @ Rs. 833, the stock price fell and created anxious moments for traders who entered late.  The price has risen again this week, bringing cheer to many.

But is this a good time to enter Balkrishna Ind? Probably not.

Why:

1) The Head-&-Shoulders pattern seems to be forming.  Just one more dip and the pattern would get confirmed.  This is a potential price reversal pattern and so until we are sure that Head & Shoulders is not forming, new purchase should be avoided.  A clearer view of Head & Shoulders formation can be seen below.

2) The support line is near Rs 683.  It is a short term support (since July14).  The same price level is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement from the top.  683 is also the base of the Head & Shoulders pattern.  This line has sustained well.  If share price falls below Rs. 683, danger bells would be set ringing and a price reversal may occur.

3) There is a short term resistance line going diagonally, as seen in Chart 1.  The current price at Rs 772 where it is fighting with resistance.

4) The positives are:- 50-day moving average is at >30 degree incline,  RSI has sustained near 70% level.  A weekly Marabozu candle has formed.  Volume is near the average.  These are positive signs, which tell us that the stock still has strength.

5) Till it breaks above the "Head" at Rs 833, the stock should be watched keenly.


All posts related to Balkrishna Industries

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY: Nothing Significant Today

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

(Each candlestick represents one daily of stock market activity)

NIFTY closed +50 today and displayed an upward marabozu candle with decent volume, but it still is below the resistance line at 5950.

That is the level to watch out for.  

If it hits 5950, then that would be a good time to play short if the volume lowers and the bar turns red the next day.  But in case it goes above 5950, look for the intensity of the breakout before taking a long position in the market

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NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY in 'Grey Zone'

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

(Each candlestick represents one daily of stock market activity)

On Aug 23, I posted that NIFTY is expected to rise above 5575.  The resistance is near 5871.  Currently, the NIFTY is into this zone.  This rise is primarily due to the bank rate revision as well as approval of higher FDI in various important sectors of Indian economy.  However, it was as if the candlestick chart aided by some Fibonacci tracing and momentum indicators, was showing an expectation of rise above 5575 much before the govt. declared policy changes.  Somehow, as if, the chart knew!

Today, we can see that NIFTY saw heavy trading and a small fall during the day, indicating that long positions were being liquidated in large numbers.  This, couple with a previous resistance at the same level, could mean that the market might see some more horizontal movement or further fall from this level tomorrow.

Also, two sudden gap ups with increased trading could be some sort of a 'bear trap' - the jump before the fall.  Avoid getting too excited at the moment about the index jumps.

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NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Outlook for the Week July 4 - 8, 2011

NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS:

This has been a good week for NIFTY, after it bounced back creating a hammer formation from the dreaded 5200 level in the last week.  However, the next week can be difficult and the index could fall again.

You can see that there is a line of resistance which is applicable since Nov 2010, i.e. 7 months ago.  This makes it a strong line of resistance to reckon with. 

The index reached this line of resistance twice and then fell back again.  Out of these previous two times, it tried to break above this line for an entire month in the Apr-May 2011 period but couldn't do so and fell back again.  You can see that all the weekly highs during that period touched the line of resistance but failed to rise above it.

Now again for the 3rd time, the index is about to reach this line of resistance and will meet it around 5717.  This is an important point to watch out for.  If the index rises above this level then we can look at a positive movement in the coming weeks.  However, if 5717 is not breached and the index falls below, then we would ideally expect it to head towards 5350 and then 5200 before making any further movements. 

For now, wait and see what happens at 5717 before making any important trade decisions.

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NIFTY WEEKLY TECHNICAL CHART ANALYSIS

Bajaj Holdings & Investments: Rises to touch resistance

BAJAJ HOLDINGS & INV Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Bajaj Holdings is showing improvement.  Today it ran into a diagonal resistance and also has entered the Ichimoku cloud zone. So, this is a double resistance point for Bajaj Holdings.

If it breaks above the diagonal resistance, it can be traded but the stoploss has to remain tight until it is able to cross the cloud and is above 825.


BAJAJ HOLDINGS & INV Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Reliance Communications: Important Triangle Tomorrow

RELIANCE COMM Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Reliance Communications made a slight movement today, but nothing worth noticing.

Close & CMP: 95.05

Market Outlook:

• Buy if it closes above 96 or crosses 96 intraday with good volume on 23 Feb.  
• The level at 91 is serving as support.  

Technical Indicators:

• An inverted hammer-like formation occurred today.  Tomorrow the triangle gets completed so the stock should make some interesting movement.
• There is a sideways movement after a big fall (triggered by the probe news on ADAG).  
• There is also a steep diagonal resistance.  Breaking this resistance with good volume might trigger this stock price upwards and make it buy-worthy.  
• Going below 90 is further bad luck for RComm investors. 
• The way this stock has sustained the level at 90, let's hope for good news.

All posts related to Reliance Communications

RELIANCE COMM Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY: Might Hit Resistance Soon

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis:

NIFTY made a rise today, continuing a positive week for the stock market.

Close & CMP: 5546

Market Outlook:

• NIFTY might remain sideways tomorrow, and Monday-Tuesday could see a big movement in either downward or upward direction, with a higher probability of downwards.
• निफ्टी कल शांत रहना चहिये, और सोमवार या मंगलवार को गति दिखा सकता है.  ज्यादा सम्भावना है की तब फिर नीचे की और जायेगा.

Technical Indicators:

• The market showed good recovery today but the momentum is rising very fast and could soon hit upside and tumble back. 
• 5627 is the resistance and 5415 is the support for NIFTY.
• Closing above 5627 is a very positive sign.

All posts related to NIFTY

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Update: Fails to Break Resistance Today

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis:

• NIFTY opened at its resistance today at 5763 and rallied upwards in the first half, but finally succumbed and could not break its resistance.  The index finally closed at 5687.  So NIFTY continues its sideward journey.
  
• Let's see where it goes tomorrow.  The market seems readying to make a good move in either direction and breakthrough either resistance or support.  The only question is when the market will make this big move.
  
• निफ्टी आज अपने रेसिस्टांस लाइन पर ही खुला और दिन की शुरुआत में ऊपर की ओर रुख किया, पर वापिस नीचे आ गया और रेसिस्टांस के नीचे ही बांध हुआ.  देखते हैं कल क्या होता है. 

All posts related to NIFTY


NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

Persistent Systems: Facing Resistance

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:
(This is a weekly chart, each bar/candlestick represents one week of activity)


Persistent Systems is a 2010 IPO which started trading on 6 Apr 2010.  After an initial uprise, the price fell between July-Nov, and it has started clawing upwards again since the last 1.5 months.

Current close and CMP:  430

Market Outlook:

• The price is facing stiff resistance at 439.  Unless it breaks upwards from this price level, it will turn bearish again.
• Buy only above 439.
• If holding this stock, put your stoploss just below 423.

Technical Indicators:

• There is a diagonal line of resistance and the price has stopped rising last week after touching this line.
• The current resistance also co-incides with the 50% Fibonacci level.
• The last week ended with a Shooting Star candlestick pattern
• This is a double resistance at 439.  If the price breaks above 439, it will shoot upwards like a bullet.  But if it falls below 423, it will began another downward swing.

All posts pertaining to Persistent Systems

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

ABB: Opportunity to go short

ABB Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The price remained range-bound today and ABB closed at 804.

Market Outlook:

• This looks like a shorting opportunity with a targets of 775 and 760, and stop-loss near 820.

Technical Indicators:

• There is a Doji candlestick followed by a Spinning Top, and the price has just tested and failed to break through its resistance.  Moreover, today's candlestick is completely contained within yesterday's range.
• The trading volume has also dropped back significantly.
• All signs, that ABB has failed to climb above its resistance and is now falling again.

ABB Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Atlas Cycle: Zooming, but will it zoom through resistance?

ATLAS CYCLES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Atlas Cycles witnessed a super single-day rise on Friday with humongous trading volume.  

Open:  216   Intraday High:  256  Close & CMP: 249

Market Outlook:

• No.1 Question in people's mind is - Whether one should get into this stock because the price is zooming upwards?
• The answer to this question lies in how it behaves on Monday and Tuesday.
• If the stock closes above 256, then it might make sense to take a long position.  
• So, wait until 256+ before buying

Technical Indicators:

• The trading volume saw a massive single day jump, so did the price.
• Inspite of this rise, the price has remained below resistance.  In fact, it started falling the moment it hit the resistance, and closing price was below the long-term resistance line.  This is showing that resistance is quite strong.
• So, I would wait for a day or two to see if the resistance at 256 is authoritatively breached.  Until then, wait n watch.

ATLAS CYCLES Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Tata Motors: Resistance Too Strong

TATA MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Tata Motors made a weak rise today and remained bound in a very short range.

Market Outlook:

• The price faced very strong resistance at 1371 today and failed at the attempt to rise above it.
• There is a good chance that the price will start falling, don't get into this one right now, unless you are looking for opportunities to short.
• When it starts to fall, the target for shorting would be around 1270.

Technical Indicators: 

• There is a long term line of resistance prohibiting price rise.
• The price tried to break through this resistance line today as well as 4 days ago, and failed on both attempts.
• There was a Doji formation yesterday and a small range bound trading today.
• The price is very well into oversold levels.
• All indicators point downwards at the moment, the stock is ready to fall towards its support.

All previous posts about Tata Motors 

TATA MOTORS Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Karur Vysya: Buy Only Above 520

KARUR VYSYA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Karur Vysya managed to close at 511, higher than its resistance.

Market Outlook:

• The price has tried to rise above its resistance and even managed to close above resistance.  This is a positive sign, but is still not convincing enough to take a long position.
• Crossing the previous support price line at 520 and closing above it is what can be seen as an indication to go long, if other indicators support the move. 

Technical Indicators:

• The price has crossed its resistance line of past month and closed above it.  The price tried to break resistance last week as well but failed.  Lets see if it can manage the same this time.
• The price is still below its 20 DMA.
• Earlier, the price was taking support on its 100 DMA but has since fallen below it.
• If price falls, support is available around 484.

KARUR VYSYA Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Earlier posts on Karur Vysya

Sensex closes just above resistance today

SENSEX Daily Chart Technical Analysis:

Sensex closed at 19864 today, after opening at 19698 and falling to an intraday low of 19554.  Overall, it closed 166 points higher than its opening, and 217 above yesterday's close.

Market Overview:

• Sensex will most probably remain range bound tomorrow and not register a major change from today.

Technical Indicators: 

• The index closed just a tad above its long term resistance line today.  The same thing had happened on Tuesday but the market could not sustain this yesterday and close below.  Tomorrow, the same thing could happen.
• The index does not seem to have the force to break through resistance as of now.  Next week either it will build that strength and climb with a bang, or it will lose steam and fall with a whimper.  Next week could see some big moves in either direction.
• If it falls, the support line is around 18920.

SENSEX Daily Chart Technical Analysis



Indiabulls Weekly: 8-12 Nov: Tested by Resistance Line at 221: Don't buy yet

INDIABULLS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

The week remained indecisive for Indiabulls.  In the last week, the price had finally broken through the long term resistance at 221.  It seemed like there were good times ahead for Indiabulls.  But in this week the price remained with the last week's range and traded 7.44 M shares, almost 60% of last weeks 12.66 M shares.

Open: 232, Close & CMP: 225.65, High: 239.9, Low: 222.1

Market Outlook: 

• 221 is a very important level.  It seems like the price will fall back beneath 221 again this week after 2 weeks of staying above it.
• Don't buy Indiabulls yet.  In fact, keep an eye for opportunities to play short and make money

Technical Indicators:

• The RSI is showing a slowdown after flying into overbought levels.
• This week's candlestick remained within the last week's candlestick, to create something similar to the Harami pattern
• Rs 221 is a long term resistance for Indiabulls.  The price seems like it will fall back below this level yet again.
• In case the price takes support at 221 and rises back, it might be a good time to get into this stock.
• But if it falls below, wait and watch before taking a position.  Might be good opportunity to go short in the week after next.

INDIABULLS Weekly NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Pricol: Support @ 25, Resistance @ 31

PRICOL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Pricol fell today, opening at 28 and closing at CMP 26.4.

Market Outlook:

• The price should close between 25 and 26 on next trading day.
• Support at 25 and resistance at 31.

Technical Indicators:

• The day ended with a Marabozu Candlestick.
• There is Fibonacci 61.8% support at 25, and Fibonacci 78.6% resistance at 31.
• There are also trendlines of support and resistance as visible on the chart above.
• The price could hit 25 before returning upwards, could be a buy opportunity if it U-turns.

PRICOL Daily NSE Stock Chart Technical Analysis: