3i Infotech Weekly: 25-29 Oct'10: Doji Candlestick

3i Infotech NSE Weekly Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

People have shown great interest in looking at the 3i Infotech charts on my blog, so I'm adding a weekly analysis of this stock as well.

3i Infotech has formed a Doji star.  After a good rise last week, this week has seen some profit booking, leading to a balanced market with neither the buyers nor the sellers in control.

The week opened at 66.9 and closed at 67.2.  The intra week high and low were 70.25 and 65.2.  This is less than 10% volatility and almost negligible difference between the open and close price, inspite of good volume.

Outlook for next week: The price is expected to move sideways for the coming week.

Technical Indicators:

The price finally peeked above the 50 week moving average after 6 months.  This is a good sign as the stock is struggling to break its sideways trend and rise upwards.  

But the appearance of a doji candlestick shows that the market is not very sure if the price should be pushed beyond the 50 week moving average.  In fact, the price went beyond this line during the week but the price closed below this line.  That's not too optimistic

The stock has slowed its journey towards the oversold levels.  So it might soon turn downwards.  Based on this indicator, the price should move sideways next week, and then fall back in the week after that.  Unless of course, some big news comes in.

Talking of big news, there are rumors that Satyam Mahindra may consider buying 3i Infotech.  This is unconfirmed, but if this happens, 3i Infotech could suddenly be seen soaring high above its current price level.  

Kinetic Motors Weekly: 25-29 Oct'10: Marabozu Candlestick

Kinetic Motors Weekly Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Kinetic Motors ended the week with a marabozu candlestick.  This shows continued selling throughout the week, and heavy profit booking by the traders and investors.

The week opened at 45 and closed at 37.65, hence losing almost 18% value in just 5 trading days.  The weekly high and low were 45.25 and 37.6.  This is very close to the opening and closing price, telling us that the all through the week, profit booking has been the only thing on everyone's mind.

Outlook for next week: The stock price will fall further.  As this week has had very low volume compared to the past 3 weeks, it can be estimated that the price will not fall at the same speed as this week.  The price is expected to find support between 33 and 37 and close the next week accordingly.


Technical Indicators: 


The price is falling from the oversold levels and into the middle zone.  This depicts continued selling and profit booking in the next week, driving prices downwards.


The volume has lowered significantly.  Hence the speed of fall should get curtailed in the next week.


The Fibonacci level of 50% (36.6) and 38.2% (33.34) should act as the support points for this week. If the price falls further below these points (which is not expected), it most probably won't go below  29.31.

Reliance Comm Weekly: 25-29 Oct'10: Doji Candlestick

Reliance Communications Weekly Stock Chart on NSE Technical Analysis

The NSE weekly chart of Reliance Communications formed a Doji for this week.  It's a picture perfect formation, the stock price closed at less than Re. 1 higher on Friday than what it opened at on Monday.  What a super indecisive time for Reliance Comm!  The market is confused on what way this will move.

The week opened at 179.5 and closed at 180.1.  In between it made a high and low of 185.35 and 173.2.  

Outlook for next week:  The picture is not pretty.  The next week could turn negative price could fall back to end the week negatively.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages look like creepers hanging from trees in the jungle.  The price has stayed below even the 20 week moving average for most part of the past 2 years.  And that's bad!

This week, it has crossed the 20 week moving average and touched its 50 day moving average.  Historical evidence shows that the stock price does not manage to stay above its 50 day moving average, and so breaking this level to rise upwards is going to take a lot of energy.

The stock is already showing oversold levels.  This means its a possible time for a downhill journey this week.  

The picture perfect Doji candlestick shows excessive indecisiveness amongst buyers and sellers.  Even then, the interest has not waned and the volume of trading is almost double the previous week.

Reliance Ind Weekly: 25-29 Oct'10: Spinning Top Candlestick

Reliance Industries Weekly Stock Chart Technical Analysis:

Reliance Industries weekly stock chart on NSE has ended with a Spinning Top.  This shows an indecisive market where neither the buyers or the sellers are willing to take control.  

The week opened at 1088 and closed at 1096.25, with intraweek high and low of 1110 and 1076.4.  This shows low stock volatility even though the interest in the stock has been good.

Outlook for next week:  The market is expected to move sideways with more volatility than this week.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages of 20, 50 and 100 weeks have converged. The 20 week average has crossed the 50 and 100 week averages from below.  A big move can be expected soon, hopefully positive, though it does not seem likely in this week.

The stock is flying through the oversold levels already and the blue line has formed an angle to touch the red line already.  This means the price could slow down this week.

RIL Q2 results have been announced with mixed reception.  Some believe they are in tune with expectation and others believe they are lower than expectation.  This means a volatile but indecisive week lies ahead.

Tata Motors Weekly: 25 to 29 Oct 2010: Doji Formation

Tata Motors Weekly Stock Chart on NSE: Technical Analysis

The trading of Tata Motors has reduced this week, and the price has moved sideways.  Next week could see a negative candle being formed (price at end of week will be lower than beginning of week), if the buying interest slows down further, as people will think that the market has reached its top and so begin to sell their positions.

Technical Indicators:

• After a steep rise in the previous weeks, a second doji candle has formed this week.  This shows that buying has slowed down and people are holding on to this stock.  
• This is also visible in the slowed down volume of this stock.  The market is waiting before deciding on whether to buy or sell Tata Motors.  

Airtel Weekly: 25 to 29 Oct 2010: Bearish Candlestick

The market remained indecisive about the Airtel stock price on NSE.  After 4 weeks of sharp fall, the price has found resistance and has moved sideways this week.  The next week does not look very positive, but the sideways could continue and a further fall could remain curbed.  The price should be able to remain supported  and not fall below 310-320.  Even if it does, it will quickly retrace upwards.  If the price goes and remains lower than this price level, alarm bells are ringing!

• Airtel Weekly stock price chart on NSE shows a bearish candlestick.  This is the 5th consecutive week that has ended with a bearish candlestick.
• However, this week's high and low are very similar to the last week's high and low.
• The price has found support just above the Fibonacci 50% level, which is an important support point.
• Coincidently, the current price level is also supported by the 40 week moving average (not shown on this chart).  The moving averages have come close to each other, and the price could enjoy another upswing soon.
• The volume is average compared to other weeks.
• The stock price this week is closing in to its over sold levels, though its not completely oversold yet.  One more week and the stock may hit the bottom and start rising again.  Keep an eye on the oversold levels and a buy signal when it turns.  The daily chart (not shown here) has suggested that the market will try to return upwards on Monday opening.

SBI Weekly: 25 to 29 Oct 2010: Fat Bearish Spinning Top Candlestick

The week for the SBI stock on NSE ended with an indecisive bearish candlestick.  The candle looks similar to a bearish spinning top, though not exactly fitting into the description.

There is also the formation of a long term price channel and the SBI stock price on NSE hit the resistance formed by this and slowly retracted all of October 2010.

Other indicators have also turned bearish.

Seems like another bearish week ahead for SBI.  Hopefully the market will break its indecisiveness soon and a new trend will emerge. I'll keep you updated on the same.

ICICI Weekly: 25 to 29 Oct 2010: Hanging Man Candlestick

The week for ICICI Bank stock on NSE ended with highest volume since May 2010. 

The candlestick for the week has formed a hanging man formation.  The hanging man is not a pretty sight on the chart and it shows that the bears are trying to gain control, though unsuccessfully at the moment.  The candlestick is positive, which also shows that the bulls are against any drop in the price.  

The 20 week moving average is diverging from the 50 week moving average.

The week has ended positively as ICICI Bank posted good quarterly results.  

There is no clear signal right now.  The stock can be traded within the week based on daily or intraday indicators as the price will remain volatile and provide many opportunities for short-term buy and sell.  

The market should open higher on Monday, there might be an opportunity to go long immediately, but wait for market open to confirm.

NIFTY Weekly Analysis 25-29 Oct 2010

This week ended on a not so positive note.  Let's look at what the technical indicators say:

Moving averages are traveling almost parallel. The 20 day moving average has branched out by a few points in the last month.  Overall, no signs of any big change very soon.

Volume is very good, showing high interest in the stock market and trading of NIFTY.  

2 lines of support can be drawn using previous weeks' resistance points.  These two lines can act as support in case NIFTY falls lower below.

Other important indicators point to a negative candle for the next week as well.  Is this going to be a non-optimistic Diwali?

Cera Sanitaryware Ends Week with 50% Fibonacci Level Support

Cera Sanitaryware stock price on NSE has ended the week sideways.  The stock has taken support of the 50% Fibonacci level today.  We had discussed about this stock continuously taking Fibonacci support in yesterday's post.

The market seems to be very confused about where Cera will head next.  It seems definitely set to fall further on Monday 1st November 2010.

NIFTY Approaching Triangle

After a gap down and 2 more days of falling, NIFTY finally showed up a positive sign - a Dragonfly Doji.  Moreover, this dragonfly doji comes with a strong buying interest in the market, with volume at one of its highest levels in the past year.  

Based on which way the NIFTY breaks the triangle, we will determine what position to take. The moving averages are also flying apart, denoting the continuation of a choppy market for some more time.

Dabur Could Fall if Fibonacci Zero % breached - Day 2

Dabur stock price on NSE created a consecutive bottom today when its intraday low closely match yesterday's intraday low.  But the price rallied back and closed above yesterday's high.

The overall market interest in this stock was average and much lower than yesterday.

The Fibonacci Zero % Level was not breached even today,  but the stock opened higher today at 23.5% Fibonacci level, higher than yesterday's close, and closed above yesterday's close as well.

Only if the Fibonacci Zero % is breached, should you think about liquidating this stock. If not, wait and watch.

Bajaj Auto Buy Signal - Price begins another short term upswing

As exptected in yesterday's post, Bajaj Auto went back up again after reaching its 50 day moving average today.  The market opened gap up and ended up at 1510.95.

The volume is average, other technical analysis indicators are looking up.  This means the stock is about to make another short term upswing.  

Go long on Monday market opening.  There is no target, but put a stop at 1462.  Sell when the stochastics blue line crosses the red line, or the RSI starts falling back (preferably when RSI is falling back from above the oversold level of 70%).  The small swing should last 4-7 days, as is seen in the recent past.  Keep a watch on these indicators daily if you go long on Bajaj Auto on NSE on Monday market opening.

3i Infotech & 200-day EMA

3i Infotech stock price on BSE has crossed its 200-day EMA from the underneath after almost 6 months of staying under the 200 day moving average.

This could mark a positive sign for 3i Infotech in the stock market.  

A closer looks shows that today, the stock price went to an intraday high above the 200 day moving average but it dropped back to close further below with good volume.

Moreover, the intraday high touched and retracted from a trendline that is supported by some other tops and bottoms in the past 6 months.

Though the stock has faced resistance at this level, breaking through the 200 day moving average is a very positive sign and if the price breaks through this resistance with confirmation on next successive day/s, its a good time to long this stock.  I'll keep this forum updated.

Hero Honda Moving Averages Coming Together

Wow! And I thought yesterday that the Hero Honda stock price in NSE would close positively today.  I wonder which indicator I missed.

The price fell today owing to weak quarter performance of Hero Honda.

There is a bearish counterattack pattern appearing today and the market has returned to its last day's open, and this is a negative signal.

Interestingly, the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages have come together today, which means the market is building a consensus on the next price movement.  The 20 day moving average climbs through the 50 day moving average from below, which is a positive signal.

The volume is lower than yesterday, showing that today's price fall does not have the same intensity as yesterday's rise.  This is a positive signal.

We are getting a mix of positive and negative signals, making it difficult to determine the next price movement.

Ideally, if the stock price falls further, it should find support at the 250 day moving average, as the price has not fallen below this level or remained fallen below this level for more than a week since the past 2 years.

I feel the price will fall on Monday market open, bottom out near the 20 day moving average, and rise again. For now, a short position can be entered into with a purchase at 1860, stop at 1930 levels and a target at 1820-1800.

TVS Motors - No Signals Yet but watch out for a bottom at Rs. 70

In yesterday's post, I had pointed out that 3 lines of support are merging on the TVS Motors stock price chart on NSE, and it would be important which of these lines the price breaks and which one it respects.

Interestingly (or not so interestingly), the intraday low fell below all 3 support lines (2 trend lines, 1 50 day moving average).  But it climbed back and closed above all 3 lines of support.  This makes the next day more interesting to watch before taking a position.

There is a line of support to the TVS Motors stock price on NSE at Rs. 70.  This was a level where the price found some resistance before it gapped up and created this line into support in mid-Aug 2010.  We can see that this line of support has indeed been quite "supportive" to the price.  

This will be a line to watch out for at Rs. 70 price level.  If this line is crossed with good volume and followed by negative candles, the market might not rise up soon.  But if this line is respected, the price will go up again.

The stock price has formed a Reverse head and shoulders pattern.  The price today has fallen below the reverse shoulder, which is not a good sign.  Other indicators also point towards a decline.

The price could fall further on Monday, obstacled by 2 diagonal support trend lines, the 50 day moving average, and the Rs. 70 support line.

Bajaj Auto cruising comfortably on the 50-day moving average

Bajaj Auto stock on BSE is rising comfortably on its 50 day moving average since December 2009.

The current volume suggests that as the price is falling towards its 50 day moving average, the trading has decreased.  Ideally, this should pick up again in a day or two, on or before reaching the 50 day moving average.

A closer look at the chart shows that each swing from the 50 day moving average is about 125-250 rupees upwards.  So, as the price moves upwards again before or on touching the 50 day moving average, this stock can be bought with a target to profit between 125 and 250 rupees.

However, the current chart also shows a bunch of negative candles since the past 3 weeks.  The trend overall seems positive but the appearance of this bunch of candles is not a pretty sign. Book short term swing profits on this stock, not a good time to go "too" long.

3 lines of support converge on TVS stock chart

TVS Motor stock price on NSE has seen 3 support lines converge yesterday, of which one is its 50 day moving average.  Which of these support lines will the TVS stock adhere to?  That's what is to be seen before  taking the next position on this stock.

This is a closer view of the support lines converging.  The 50 day moving average (not seen in 2nd chart) touches the line of support today.  The 20 day moving average (not seen here) is closing back in to the 50 day moving average, showing that some consensus is building in the market and this consensus should be visible soon from which line of support remains valid.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Scooters stock price on NSE is in a price channel since Mar 2010. The price tried to break out of this channel on 5th and 6th October but could not do so and fell back into the price channel.  

Today's high is close to the upper limit of the price channel, but the stock closed lower than its high so the price may rise tomorrow atleast in the first session.

What happens after the price hits the resistance of the price channel is important to watch.

 

A closer look at today's chart shows an indecisive market.  Also, double tops have formed previously at 744 and double bottoms have formed at 688.  Breaking either of these levels after an indecision day can signal the next move in the market.  Wait and watch.

Kinetic Motors Sideways

My earlier post on Kinetic Motors on Oct 22nd 2010 speculated on a possibility of price rise based on confirmation.  But the confirmation never came and the market developed a sideway trend.  

Three moving averages have diverged to a large extent, and volume has also slowed down.  The market should remain sideways tomorrow as well.

An yearly view on the chart shows how divergent the moving averages have become, denoting mixed emotions about this stock amongst investors and continuation of choppy sideways market with some more black / neutral candles for the time being.  

Hero Honda takes support of 250 day moving average

Hero Honda Motors stock price on NSE is currently sideways and closed at Rs. 1907.75 today.

The price has found good support at the Fibonacci 78.6% price level (Rs. 1766.70).  

It has also found support on the 250 day moving average, with whom the price has reconnected after an entire year.

A closer look at today's chart shows a long white candle with strong volume.  Rs 1933 and Rs 1977 are the next two psychological barriers to this price. Indicators don't point to a fall in the price tomorrow and the week should end on a positive note.

Dabur Could Fall if Fibonacci Zero % breached

Dabur stock price on NSE is sideways since 3rd week of June 2010.  The price peaked at Rs 112.40 on 20th Sep 2010. 

Since then, the price has been falling slowly but steadily.  

During the price rise within the sideways, the market faced Fibonacci resistance at 61.8% (near Rs. 106).  During its return downwards, it tried to rise back but was resisted again at the same 61.8%.  Both these points are visible on the chart with blue circles.  

The stock has fallen after this resistance with quite high volume and other technical indicators also turning negative.  Moving average (not shown here) is also suggesting the stock price will make a move and the 20 day moving average has crossed the 50 day moving average just a couple of days ago.

This price is almost close to Fibonacci Zero % (Rs 96.50), and may fall further if this level is breached without support.

Cera Sanitaryware Sideways taking Fibonacci Support

Cera Sanitaryware is sideways after a quick rise in late July. 

Currently, its trading using the Fibonacci support levels.  Today's intraday low took support of the 61.8% Fibonacci and closed very near to yesterday's close.  Today's candle shows that the day ended with heavy selling pressure but relatively low volume.  

No clear signs of where the market is headed after its sideways journey.  Intra day price volatility is also very high, making it a good stock for intraday.  As I don't usually trade intraday, I'm steering clear of this choppy stock right now and will wait for clear signals to go long/short.

Canara Bank making Tower Top ?

Canara bank has been rising well over the last few months.  It is a good prospect for swing trading along the 50 day moving average support line.

It rose with 3 advancing soldier pattern starting 21st Oct 2010.  But after that, it consolidated for a couple of days and has formed a long black candle today.  The volume is also high.  Other indicators are also showing possibility of fall.

Is a tower top forming here?  This is a good time to wait and watch this stock.  A tower formation is bad sign!

3i Infotech touches 200-day Moving Average from below

3i Infotech stock price on BSE at Rs. 68.25 has almost touched its 200-day moving average from below after falling below it in early Feb 2010.

The price did try to break through its 200-day moving average in early March, but could not achieve it.

After almost 8 months, the price has again climbed to its 200 day moving average, as is visible in today's chart.  The volume is also quite good.  If the price breaks the moving average, its a good time to go long on 3i Infotech.

Yes Bank Gap-Up Opening

Yes bank has created Gap up on 22 Oct 2010.  The volume has also been increasing.

But I'll wait and see if this is a continuation or reversal gap-up.  

Keep an eye on this stock.

Escorts Buy

Escorts stock prices on NSE follow an interesting swing pattern in an overall uptrend.

The swings are in the range of 20-40 rupees.  Also, the swings are getting steeper.

The current swing began at 208.6.  The target can be around 238-240.  The stop can be trailed by 10+, 20+, 30+ when the price goes 20+, 30+, 40+.

Ashok Leyland Stock on NSE has hugged its 50 day SMA so well since it began uptrending in early 2009, almost 2 years ago.  Keep watching the 50 day SMA for clues on trading Ashok Leyland.

A closer look at recent Ashok Leyland price chart shows the formation of a double bottom and quadruple top.

77 is proving to be strong price resistance level for the Ashok Leyland stock, with support at 71.8.

Today the price fell and closed almost near yesterday's low.  However, the volume was less than 50% of yesterday.  This means that the fall in price may not be sustained on Monday when the market opens, and the price will try to break the 77 resistance.

The stock becomes a good prospect for short term trading if it rises above 79. 

Airtel Upper & Lower Limits

Watch out Airtel stock on NSE for these levels - 377 and 329.7, once either of these are broken, the stock will enjoy a rise / fall.  

Lets see how the market opens tomorrow, no bets as of now.

Chart Source: www.moneycontrol.com

Kinetic Motors Could Rise Again

Kinetic Motors stock on NSE is all set to rise again after a small correction. 

We can see a Bullish Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick on 21 Oct 2010.

On 22 Oct 2010, the market opened gap-up and there is a Dragonfly Doji Candlestick.

Moreover, today is accompanied with good rise in volume as well.  The other indicators are also positive.

I am willing to go long on 24 Oct 2010 market opening if it opens higher, which seems very likely.

SBI forms Morning Star

I was short on SBI at 3200 with a target of 3050.  

But the stock has formed a morning star on 21 Oct 2010 which is a bullish reversal pattern.  Today, chart shows a doji.  If the market opens up tomorrow and trades with good volume for part of the day, I'll liquidate my short position and not wait for my stop to get hit.

Chart Source: in.reuters.com

Sensex & NIFTY Create Morning Star Patterns

Sensex (left chart) and Nifty (right chart) have created a morning star pattern each before the end of the last week.

The other indicators are also showing probability of a rise.

The markets should rise in the coming week 25-29 Oct 2010.

Laxmi Vilas Bank Setup for Big Move Soon

Lakshmi Vilas Bank is sideways since 2 months and the volume has constantly lowered.  Coupled with other indicators, there are signs of a big move soon.  

All increase in volumes have been during spike-up in price of Lakshmi Vilas, as is visible in the above chart.  So if volume suddenly goes up, the swing could be upwards.  

Lakshmi Vilas can be purchased on 25 Oct 2010 around 130 price levels, with a target of 140 - 145 and stop loss at 124.  Alternately, the stock can be buy n hold with proactive trailing of stop.

Indraprastha Gas is rising as predicted, and trying to go back to its line of support which was breached in September.   The other indicators predict a move soon, and this could be upwards.  I will continue remaining in a long position but will not add any new position yet.

Today was almost a gap-up with good volume support.  A belt hold reversal has also happened in this week. Good signs, all.

Chart Sources: www.moneycontrol.com, in.reuters.com

Ingersoll Rand Continues Sideways

Ingersoll-Rand is sideways but is approaching a trend triangle.

The indicators suggest that the sideways could crack soon and a move can happen.  As of now, it can't be said which way the move will be.  

Many dojis and negative candles.  Today's EOD suggests bearish control.  The stock might continue sideways until triangle endpoint.

Not all periods can be traded.  This is one such period where IR is wait and watch to take a position.  And if already in a position, stay put.

Chart Sources: www.moneycontrol.com, in.reuters.com

SBI Misses Target and Rises Back

SBI was so close to the first target yesterday, but missed and went up again today.  Volume is also good, other indicators are also showing upward possibility, so the trend may continue tomorrow.

I can also notice that the price has tried to reach its long term diagonal line of support as well as its short term horizontal line of support, which merge in a triangle formation near today's close.

With a stop near 3350 levels, I'll wait and see where this goes.

Chart Source: www.moneycontrol.com

IDBI Gap up Opening

IDBI broke its double top of 164.5 yesterday, and opened gap up today.  The volume is higher than all of October except yesterday.

Seems positive, a good gap up candlestick and high volume and breaking of double top, but no other indicators are giving an entry signal yet so will wait before entering.

Chart Source: www.moneycontrol.in

Bajaj Finance Finds Short term Price Channel Support

Bajaj Finance stock on NSE fell below its long term support line 4 days ago, but has found support on the horizontal line.  I have talked about all the lines in my previous posts on Bajaj Finance, pl refer to them for this thread of discussion.

We will wait and watch before taking any position, but it does seems like the stock will fall further based on the negative candlestick formations and some other indicators.

Chart Source: www.moneycontrol.com