NIFTY higher highs, RSI lower highs

NIFTY Daily Candlestick Technical Analysis

The post-demonetisation rise in NIFTY is baffling.  Most companies and sectors are struggling, some have gone flat tyre, and still the share market is behaving like it is in an overdrive.  What to believe?  I have done detailed analysis and am basing this on a single but dependable old warhorse, the RSI.

On the daily chart, since mid-Jan, we notice that NIFTY is rising but RSI is falling, each NIFTY higher high corresponds with a RSI lower high.  This is not a good sign about the strength of the market.  I would still be cautious to believe in the market rise.

NIFTY Daily Candlestick Technical Analysis

NIFTY Expected Support Points

NIFTY Daily Candlestick Chart Analysis

9000 was an important point for NIFTY as mentioned in the previous post.  At this point, NIFTY could made a gap-down and is currently floating indecisively.

What can we expect at this point?

NIFTY can fall further and the support points are at 8523 and if it doesnt sustain then at 8340.  (Both these points are Fibonacci confluence from the market high and 4 different lows.)

From these points there is a chance NIFTY will revive.  If it falls further we'll identify new support points.

Wait before buying into this swing.

NIFTY Technical Analysis August - September 2016

NIFTY Monthly Candlestick Chart on 24th August 2016

NIFTY Monthly Technical Analysis

I did this on 24th August 2016.  NIFTY was at 8635 on that day.  The chart is long-term view with each candlestick representing a month of NIFTY's trading activity.

A Fibonacci Retracement is drawn from the market top near 8900 in Jan-Mar 2015 to the previous swing low in Aug-Sep 2013 from where the rally begun that ended in Mar 2015.

We can observe that from the high, the market found support at 6825 near 61.8% retracement of the move.   From this support, the market is moving upwards again.

Using these pivots, I think that 8900 will continue to remain an important resistance level.  The market is near this level today, and so we can expect a big movement upwards or downwards soon.

Downwards, the major support is 6825.  Upwards, the market can move to 11000+ or to 10250 in a smaller move.  These are the pivots for resistance / targets if NIFTY manages to break through 8900 and sustain an upward momentum.

In either case, the market has neared a decision point after many months of green (positive) candlesticks.  We should wait to see what the market does and once it gives a clear indication from 8900, new positions can be entered in long or short.

The market position as of today:



(Charts from Zerodha Kite HTML5 trading platform)

GHCL could rise further in short term

GHCL Daily Chart Technical Analysis


GHCL has crossed above the expected AB=CD and we can now look at the possibility of achieving the AB=138.2%CD mark.  This is at 160.  Currently the price is at 139.  A possible buy above 142 with exit at 160.


GHCL Daily Chart Technical Analysis

TVS Motors Ltd seems bearish

TVS Motors Daily Chart Technical Analysis

TVS Motors is sideways since Aug-15 and is currently trading at Rs. 230.

The price has completed AB leg of the fall from 321 to 207 (Jan-May 2015).  The CD leg seems to be developing with 272 as the possible C coordinate.

At AB = 61.8% CD, the support is at 207.50.
At AB = CD, the support is at 167.30.

RSI is at 40, if it falls below 40 and remains stuck in the oversold range for a while, these downsides may get achieved.



All posts related to TVS Motors

TVS Motors Daily Chart Technical Analysis

How Charting Could've Saved You From DLF Crash (Oct2014)

DLF Daily Historical Candlestick Chart Technical Analysis

I'm writing a different kind of post today.  This is not a future-prediction; it's a historical analysis.

The share is DLF, which has crashed in recent times.  A lot of negative news is floating around for DLF, hammering the share price.

A lot of investors have gotten stuck in DLF, as the fall was huge and happened before people could exit.

The question is, Could knowledge of Charting have saved an investor from losing money?  Did the chart give exit signals before the crash?  Let's see.

DLF Price Movement May13 to Oct14

This is a Daily Candlestick Chart of DLF from May 2013 to October 2014.

The price topped on 9th June 2014 at Rs. 242.95.  Then price fell to 205, found support for a while, attempted to rise but lost near 223 and fell from there like a waterfall.

We'll assume we have no news about DLF and are simply looking at the chart and taking positions.  The following is spotted on 9th June:

1) There was a sudden bull run from 9th May 2014, with price rising almost vertically.  The volume also spurted.  This was an alert signal.  It could mean both bullish and bearish, but its an alert nevertheless.

2)  The Fibonacci sequence shows achieving an extension level which provides natural resistance to price.

3)  On 9th June, the price made a bearsih divergence with its oscillator (compared to previous high on 26th May 2014).  This, coupled with Fibonacci resistance, is reason enough to exit or take a short position.

4)  If an investor had not exited DLF on divergence, then in the next few days the RSI fell below 70 and failed to reclaim the bullish levels till end of July even though price had risen.  This is obviously another case of divergence, giving a reason to exit anytime between 205 and 223.

5)  Finally, as the price fell below Rs. 195, it formed a Head-and-Shoulders pattern (not drawn on the chart).  After all the negative signals, this one would be a very-definite exit signal.

6)  There are candlestick patterns as well, but I think you understand by now that they provide additional information indicating an oncoming bearish market.

The price is currently (29Oct2014) trading Rs. 100 - Rs. 120 levels.  Any investor could have saved the loss by exiting DLF at the right time, as the chart was showing exit warnings again and again.

How much money could we have saved (considering current price of Rs. 111)?

1)  If exited at Bearish Divergence, then Rs. 130 per share loss could be saved.
2) If exited at RSI falling below 70 inspite of price rise, then Rs. 100 per share loss could be saved.
3) If exited at Head & Shoulders formation, then Rs. 85 per share could be saved.

That's quite a lot of money!

Why people depending only on news, would lose money in such times?
News is tricky - It can be incorrect, it can be late, and it can be incomplete.  We never know what the real story is.  Frauds have become commonplace.  Also, its obvious that many people get important information before the retail investor - and they use it even though there are laws against such trading.  Many institutional investors have access to direct news feeds, and they officially get quicker news than retail investors do.

However, a change in price movement usually shows up on the chart in form of many different alert signals.  This can be useful to protect from losses, as we see on the DLF chart above.

Cirrently, DLF is at completion of an AB=CD projection.  This is providing support to price as Rs. 109, as is visible on the chart.

All posts related to DLF

DLF Daily Historical Candlestick Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Ends Week at Range Resistance (21 Sep 2014)

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

The S&P CNX NIFTY traveled a range of 235 points during the week, but finally closed at 8121.45, a marginal 51 points higher than its open.

As visible on the chart, the range in which NIFTY is traveling since mid-May 2014 still remains valid, and the market closed on the line of resistance, after falling to the middle of the range during the week.

The weekly candlestick is a Hanging Man.  After last week's Doji at the market top, a Hanging Man is not a very positive signal.  The RSI has remained stationery as well and the divergence is not yet cured.  Higher volume shows improving interest trading in the market.

Will NIFTY breakout from the point of Resistance and jump above, or will it dive back into the range?  This should be observed during the week.

8145 is the resistance level for this week.  This keeps going higher each week as the resistance is a slant and not horizontal.

Unfortunately, NIFTY has fallen below the 6-week steep-diagonal support line.  This isn't a heartening signal.

(1) A strong upward move pulling the index high from the resistance point (8145 is the resistance level for the week) ; &(2) the index closing above the resistance line for 2-3 consecutive days can lead to positive signal if other indicators agree. Unless this happens, do not go in for long positions.


All posts related to NIFTY

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

NIFTY Had An Indecisive Week (14 Sep 2014)

NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

The market fell a minor 0.33% this week, and sustained the support line.  However, it is too close to the support line for us to be relaxed.

The weekly candlestick is not a perfect Doji, but it does resemble a Doji.  This is a signal of confusion in an upward trending market.  Volume has risen during the week but range of market movement was relatively small.  The market seems to be gearing up for a bigger move.

Notably, over the past 17 weeks (4 months), the 14-week RSI is forming a bearish divergence to the NIFTY.  This needs to be watched closely, as either the RSI will rise and match NIFTY; or NIFTY will fall and match the RSI.  The divergence has sustained for quite a while now!

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NIFTY Weekly Market Index Chart Analysis

Biocon: Finally Inching Back to Where It Started 9 Years Ago (Sep2014)

Biocon Ltd. Monthly Chart (Each Candlestick represents one month)

Biocon Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Let's look at the long term trend of Biocon prior to charting its current situation.  

Above is the monthly chart since its IPO in 2004.  We can see that if someone invested in the IPO and held on to the share, unfortunately they have not made any profit in 9+ years.  

The current trend has been positive.  The moving 20 & 50 SMA (monthly) (not on this chart) are moving upwards. The 50 monthly SMA has recently crossed the 100 SMA upwards.  Overall the share price has moved upwards since the big fall during 2008 global markets meltdown.

Let's see the dominant trendlines on the monthly chart below.  The current months are where the long term trendlines converge, making it an important time to watch this share.

The stochastics indicator on the monthly chart is oversold (not visible on the chart) and %D has just fallen below the 80% level.  The RSI (not visible on the chart) has also formed a bearish divergence.  This is indicating a correction zone for Biocon, and so we will keenly watch the current rise, and not invest before we can see a clear indication for further rise.

A notable viewpoint is that inspite of uptrending Indian markets and the NIFTY reaching its all-time high, Biocon is still sluggish.  Biocon is zigzag in a fast-rising market, and it gives us a reason to be wary of the further movement of this share.

August made a Doji candlestick, a powerful signal on a monthly chart.  This indicates that the market is largely confused about Biocon's share price.  In September, Biocon has made a good comeback with good volumes.  Let's see if this can sustain.

Biocon has good product lines, including futuristic markets such as manufacturing injectable insulin for diabetics.  This is an ever-growing market and in the long run this share should do well if the company follows solid business practices.

Now let's see what a trader should be doing.

Currently, the entry point is around Rs. 540-550.  Tight Stoploss would be at 510, other Stoploss is at Rs. 460.  Short Target would be Rs. 590-600.  Mid-term target would be 650-680.

Unless price achieves the 540+ level, this share should be watched and not invested.  

On the lower side, Rs. 460 is a point of Resistance-turned-Support. 

The market resisted Rs. 460 for 6 consecutive months (from Dec 13 to May 14), making it s a strong holding point... and now that it has become support we can expect it will hold.

If 460 is broken, then next support is at 410 and then at 375 (Fibonacci Retracements).

Biocon Stock Chart Technical Analysis

Charted on request of Rakesh, New Delhi.

NIFTY Hits Resistance: Weekly Technical Chart 6Sep14

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY closed at its resistance on 5Sep14.

It's be a superman-week for NIFTY - up, up & away!

The index has hit resistance near 8086, the weekly closing on 5Sep14.

The 50-day SMA is happily facing north, volume has fallen but still above the average, RSI is above 70% as well.  All positive signals.

If the index jumps above resistance, we well see some new market high next week.  Otherwise there could be some correction to around 7850 levels before hitting support.

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Balkrishna Industries: Be Careful & Watch for Breakouts - 6Sep14 Weekly Chart Analysis

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

Positions in Balkrishna Industries should be avoided right now, till the following happens:-

Short-term perspective: @ Rs. 800 with tight stop loss

Long-term perspective: @ Rs. 830 & above

Observations:-

Balkrishna Industries stunned the market with >300% growth in 12 months from June 13 to July 14.

After a record-high @ Rs. 833, the stock price fell and created anxious moments for traders who entered late.  The price has risen again this week, bringing cheer to many.

But is this a good time to enter Balkrishna Ind? Probably not.

Why:

1) The Head-&-Shoulders pattern seems to be forming.  Just one more dip and the pattern would get confirmed.  This is a potential price reversal pattern and so until we are sure that Head & Shoulders is not forming, new purchase should be avoided.  A clearer view of Head & Shoulders formation can be seen below.

2) The support line is near Rs 683.  It is a short term support (since July14).  The same price level is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement from the top.  683 is also the base of the Head & Shoulders pattern.  This line has sustained well.  If share price falls below Rs. 683, danger bells would be set ringing and a price reversal may occur.

3) There is a short term resistance line going diagonally, as seen in Chart 1.  The current price at Rs 772 where it is fighting with resistance.

4) The positives are:- 50-day moving average is at >30 degree incline,  RSI has sustained near 70% level.  A weekly Marabozu candle has formed.  Volume is near the average.  These are positive signs, which tell us that the stock still has strength.

5) Till it breaks above the "Head" at Rs 833, the stock should be watched keenly.


All posts related to Balkrishna Industries

Balkrishna Industries Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

LIC Housing Finance Looks Strong with Convergence of 6 Support Lines

LIC Housing Finance Daily Chart Technical Analysis

LIC Housing Finance looks strong to take a long-position (buy).

Why?

When you see the chart I have put up, it looks complicated and cluttered.  I avoid such clutter on the charts, but this time the clutter is there for a purpose.  Read further to know why.

LIC Housing Finance has fallen since making a Double Top in May-June 2014.  

Currently, it is showing strength as there is a rare confluence of 6 different support lines.  I have marked them S1-S4 for convenience, and changed the colour / format of 2 addl. support lines.  They are as follows:

1. S1 (1 Month Old Support)
2. S2 (3 Month Old Resistance Turned Support)
3. S3 (4 Months Old Support) 
4. S4 (3+ Years Old Support - Black Line) 
5. 50-Day SMA (Red Line) 
6. 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Dotted Line)

Moreover, the RSI is in the 90+ 'very strong' zone.

Candlestick of the day is Dragonfly Doji, also a reversal pattern indicator.

The next lines of Resistance this share should encounter as it rises ahead... are 336 and 350.  

Never trade without a Stop Loss, in this case the SL can be few ticks below S3 (prob @303).

Feel free to comment with your views/questions & I'll be happy to respond.

All posts related to LIC Housing Finance

LIC Housing Finance Daily Chart Technical Analysis

LS Election Results till August 2014 & Current NIFTY Analysis

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

The excitement over poll results is diminishing as market is returning to basics. NIFTY has formed a double top near 7968. The candlesticks have shrunk in size. Market has remained at same level since almost 2 trading weeks. Volume has shrunk. Short positions can be taken when market falls from resistance levels. 

Yet, there is a bullish price channel in which the index is traveling and this needs to be watched keenly for breakouts.

This market is currently in a wait-n-watch zone and supports short-term positions, with larger positions to be taken when resistance or support breaks.  

All posts related to NIFTY

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY in the Election Circus See-Saw

 NIFTY Weekly Dec week 2 2013.png

Each Candle Represents One Week of NIFTY Activity 

(NIFTY Weekly Candlestick Technical Analysis)

NIFTY had an interesting time, with election results in 4 states favoring the BJP and the AAP, and Congress in trouble.  The market jumped immediately on the news, and reached an all time record high.  It did start falling again and lost the gains it had registered.

While it reached the record high, the volumes aren't very reassuring.  The week's high turned downwards without reaching the line of resistance, as is visible on the chart.  At this point, the stock market is on a see-saw with emotions changing on a daily basis.  It is a good time for short term trading gains, not a very good time for long term investing as the markets are not showing any long term trend; and they won't until the national election happens and the new government stabilizes.  

Not considering any of the above and simply looking at the chart, the red marubozu with good trading volumes is showing that people are selling more than buying at this NIFTY level.  The candlestick has rested on the level of support from the Opening Level of the previous week.  This level is important and if it breaks, then we can see some more fall during this week.  If the level doesnt break, then there might be a smaller movement in the index this coming week.

(NIFTY Weekly Candlestick Technical Analysis)

NIFTY: Nothing Significant Today

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

(Each candlestick represents one daily of stock market activity)

NIFTY closed +50 today and displayed an upward marabozu candle with decent volume, but it still is below the resistance line at 5950.

That is the level to watch out for.  

If it hits 5950, then that would be a good time to play short if the volume lowers and the bar turns red the next day.  But in case it goes above 5950, look for the intensity of the breakout before taking a long position in the market

All posts related to NIFTY

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Triangle Upto 5950

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

(Each candlestick represents one daily of stock market activity)

NIFTY has hit its old resistance around 5950, a resistance level it had encountered back in April 2011.

As we can see on the chart, NIFTY is now climbing in a triangle considering its steep support line and its current resistance.  The chart denotes lateral movement within the triangle until Feb 2013.

Lets see if that is how it goes. 

In case NIFTY breaks the triangle upwards or downwards with increasing volume it would be a good time to take long (on upward break) or short positions (on downward break).

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NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY in 'Grey Zone'

NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

(Each candlestick represents one daily of stock market activity)

On Aug 23, I posted that NIFTY is expected to rise above 5575.  The resistance is near 5871.  Currently, the NIFTY is into this zone.  This rise is primarily due to the bank rate revision as well as approval of higher FDI in various important sectors of Indian economy.  However, it was as if the candlestick chart aided by some Fibonacci tracing and momentum indicators, was showing an expectation of rise above 5575 much before the govt. declared policy changes.  Somehow, as if, the chart knew!

Today, we can see that NIFTY saw heavy trading and a small fall during the day, indicating that long positions were being liquidated in large numbers.  This, couple with a previous resistance at the same level, could mean that the market might see some more horizontal movement or further fall from this level tomorrow.

Also, two sudden gap ups with increased trading could be some sort of a 'bear trap' - the jump before the fall.  Avoid getting too excited at the moment about the index jumps.

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NIFTY Daily Chart Technical Analysis

Could NIFTY Rise Further?

NIFTY Monthly Chart Technical Analysis
(Each candlestick represents one month of movement)

NIFTY seems to be consolidating over the past few months, moving within a set range horizontally.

The momentum stochastics is showing a cup formation since Aug 2010, and could to cross above the 80% line.

It seems that NIFTY will rise into the gray zone, between 5575 and 5871.  I am calling this the gray zone as one NIFTY reaches here, we would have to study the market very closely to watch out for any signals for the market to move upwards or downwards.  Until then the market should seemingly continue in consolidation mode.


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NIFTY Monthly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY Continues in Downward Price Channel

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis
(each candlestick represents one week of movement)

Ever since NIFTY peaked in Nov 2010, it has been falling within a price channel as is visible on the chart.  Moreover, the entire week saw a small price movement even when the trading volume was good.  This week the price may fall further and touch its support line at around 4380 during the week. Let's see what happens from there.

If the price falls below 4380, then there could be an opportunity to short NIFTY.  If it doesn't and bounces back, then there could be as short-term opportunity to go long or expect a positive movement.  No long term correction in sight, though.

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis

NIFTY rises, but will this sustain?

NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis:
(each candlestick represents one week of movement)

Nifty had a fun day on its post-Diwali opening session and rose by almost 160 points as compared to its previous close.

This is a welcome rise, but there is the strong line of resistance to break near 5450.  This resistance has lasted over an year now, and is quite strong.  Nifty is moving in a price channel and it will be interesting to watch what it does once it hits the resistance.

If NIFTY breaks above 5450 with good power, it would be a very positive sign.  Otherwise, prepare for another fall!

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NIFTY Weekly Chart Technical Analysis